To precisely determine the offer electricity price for an end consumer, the projection of their consumption has to be calculated in advance. Such a projection may be obtained by applying various methods. In this post, I present a variant of the algebraic method, which I used in the previous article to calculate the projection of price structure. The volume projection should reflect the shape that is inherent to the group of consumers that a client belongs to, as well as cycles – yearly, weekly and daily (depicted above) and also usually depressed consumption in public holidays and edge days and, finally, be based on actual data.
The hourly load volume projection for a future delivery period is usually based on the hourly consumption observed in the past. If we have such a past load profile for at least one year, then we can project for a future period, for example, by applying the yearly and weekly (alternatively monthly) averaging for the defined day types and day hours. The full description of this averaging is contained in section “Curve Shape” in the article about a price structure projection.
The profile projection created from such averaging will reflect – just like the price structure – yearly, weekly and daily cycles and usually depressed consumption in public holidays and edge days, if the actual data present such regularity. The sum of the hourly consumption may be quite easily transformed to the contracted delivery volume by multiplying each projected value by a certain number or by adding to each projected value another number.
However, what if we do not have actual data? Then, the best way is to use the branch profile that a consumer belongs to (cinema, shopping centre, dairy, office, etc.). In case we do not have such data as well, we can use a standard profile published by a distribution system operator. If installed devices make it possible to measure consumption in zones, then a branch or standard profile may be further transformed to reflect load in each zone based on the invoices issued on a yearly or monthly basis. The load proportions can be then altered in such a way to correspond to those observed in the past.
In case of a purchasing group, that is if just one offer price is to be quoted for multiple entities with different load characteristics, then the volume projections are added in such proportions in which they constitute the purchasing group. Of course, the load profile of each entity may be adjusted based on actual data before it is finally added to the group.
Should you have any remarks or questions – please leave a comment or feel free to contact me.