tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-74506718341084872062024-03-12T19:45:28.224-07:00ForecastPower - blogForecastPowerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15455748670417054077noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7450671834108487206.post-23904898089333532702023-09-19T13:07:00.028-07:002023-09-19T13:24:57.281-07:00Plan 5-letni bez tajemnic<div style="text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjugV5exCygunuM3WBlHE0iu9zVYAXU3kJ3lTJKHeBGv4ODKRuk-Pl9mpADQ8QtYqWbpIEJwC3qwZzjphfrXSM2z5U0CySqGaWxTI3YLd_z7XiksUb5BuBQ2N7DY-nhq0cYxBQlRHooS-q2Z6fCsNcuuUmprBLgQYnL9tll-c6oRb8YJ8KCClGj_XmO_so3/s697/Animacja.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><img border="0" data-original-height="376" data-original-width="697" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjugV5exCygunuM3WBlHE0iu9zVYAXU3kJ3lTJKHeBGv4ODKRuk-Pl9mpADQ8QtYqWbpIEJwC3qwZzjphfrXSM2z5U0CySqGaWxTI3YLd_z7XiksUb5BuBQ2N7DY-nhq0cYxBQlRHooS-q2Z6fCsNcuuUmprBLgQYnL9tll-c6oRb8YJ8KCClGj_XmO_so3/w400-h216/Animacja.gif" width="400" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Wnioski</span></h2><ol style="text-align: justify;"><li><span style="font-family: arial; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: PL; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Pewne
wielkości planu 5-letniego – bez kombinacji liniowych – są ze sobą silnie
skorelowane, dlatego warto rozważyć ich agregację – np. przy użyciu analizy
głównych składowych (PCA) – zanim przystąpi się do tworzenia przy ich użyciu
modeli prognostycznych.</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: PL; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Różnice
pomiędzy wartościami publikowanymi w różnych horyzontach prognozy a ostatnimi
wartościami dostępnymi przed dostawą zmieniają się systematycznie, dlatego przy
budowie modeli prognostycznych należy posługiwać się wartościami dostępnymi na
ustalony horyzont prognozy.</span><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: PL; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> <br /></span></span></li></ol><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Co jest publikowane?</span></h2><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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5-letni publikowany jest od 1 stycznia 2021 r. To dostatecznie długi czas –
ponad 2,5 roku na dzień pisania tej publikacji – by spróbować odpowiedzieć sobie
na pytania dot. np. możliwości użycia publikowanych wielkości w modelach
prognostycznych na rynku energii.</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Closing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Message Header"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Salutation"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Date"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
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<![endif]--><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: PL; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Wartości
planu aktualizowane są co kilka-kilkanaście minut każdej doby, aktualnie w
granulacji godzinowej. Horyzont prognozy względem godziny dostawy waha się od
kilku minut do kilku miesięcy. W ramach planu publikowane są wielkości zebrane
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<![endif]--><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: PL; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Tabela
1.</span></b><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: PL; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> Nazwy
oryginalne i skrócone (używane dalej dla wygody) publikowanych wielkości w
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Closing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Message Header"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Salutation"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Date"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
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</span></p><table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<thead>
<tr style="mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td style="background: rgb(217, 217, 217); border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 332.9pt;" width="411">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Nazwa oryginalna wielkości
publikowanej w planie 5-letnim <br />
poprzedzona numerem kolumny</span></b></p>
</td>
<td style="background: rgb(217, 217, 217); border-left: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 120.2pt;" width="154">
<p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Nazwa skrócona<br />
(używana dalej dla wygody)</span></b></p>
</td>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody><tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 332.9pt;" width="411">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: 9pt;">1. Doba</span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 120.2pt;" width="154">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: 9pt;"> </span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 332.9pt;" width="411">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: 9pt;">2. Godzina</span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 120.2pt;" width="154">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: 9pt;"> </span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 332.9pt;" width="411">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: 9pt;">3.
Prognozowane zapotrzebowanie sieci [MW]</span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 120.2pt;" width="154">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: 9pt;">(03) Zapotrzebowanie sieci</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 332.9pt;" width="411">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: 9pt;">4. Wymagana
rezerwa mocy OSP [MW]</span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 120.2pt;" width="154">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: 9pt;">(04) Wym. rezerwa mocy</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 5;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 332.9pt;" width="411">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: 9pt;">5. Nadwyżka
mocy dostępna dla OSP (7) + (10) - [(3) - (13)] - (14) [MW] *</span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 120.2pt;" width="154">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: 9pt;">(05) Nadwyżka mocy</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 6;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 332.9pt;" width="411">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: 9pt;">6. Nadwyżka
mocy dostępna dla OSP ponad wymaganą rezerwę mocy (5) - (4) [MW] </span><span style="font-size: 9pt;">†</span><span style="font-size: 9pt;"></span></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 120.2pt;" width="154">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: 9pt;">(06) Nadw. mocy ponad rez.</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 7;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 332.9pt;" width="411">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: 9pt;">7. Moc
dyspozycyjna JW i magazynów energii świadczących usługi bilansujące <br />
w ramach RB [MW]</span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 120.2pt;" width="154">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: 9pt;">(07) Moc dyspozycyjna</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 8;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 332.9pt;" width="411">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: 9pt;">8. Moc
dyspozycyjna JW i magazynów energii świadczących usługi bilansujące w ramach
RB, dostępna dla OSP [MW] </span><span style="font-size: 9pt;">‡</span><span style="font-size: 9pt;"></span></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 120.2pt;" width="154">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: 9pt;">(08) Moc dysp. dla OSP</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 9;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 332.9pt;" width="411">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: 9pt;">9.
Przewidywana generacja JW i magazynów energii świadczących usługi bilansujące
<br />
w ramach RB (3) - (10) - (13) [MW] *</span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 120.2pt;" width="154">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: 9pt;">(09) Gen. w ramach RB</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 10;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 332.9pt;" width="411">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: 9pt;">10.
Prognozowana generacja JW i magazynów energii nieświadczących usług
bilansujących w ramach RB [MW]</span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 120.2pt;" width="154">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: 9pt;">(10) Gen. poza RB</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 11;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 332.9pt;" width="411">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: 9pt;">11.
Prognozowana sumaryczna generacja źródeł wiatrowych [MW]</span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 120.2pt;" width="154">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: 9pt;">(11) Gen. źródeł wiatr.</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 12;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 332.9pt;" width="411">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: 9pt;">12. Prognozowana
sumaryczna generacja źródeł fotowoltaicznych [MW]</span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 120.2pt;" width="154">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: 9pt;">(12) Gen. źródeł PV</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 13;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 332.9pt;" width="411">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: 9pt;">13. Planowane
saldo wymiany międzysystemowej [MW]</span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 120.2pt;" width="154">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: 9pt;">(13) Saldo wymiany</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 14;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 332.9pt;" width="411">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: 9pt;">14.
Prognozowana wielkość niedyspozycyjności wynikająca z ograniczeń sieciowych
występujących w sieci przesyłowej oraz sieci dystrybucyjnej w zakresie
dostarczania energii elektrycznej [MW]</span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 120.2pt;" width="154">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: 9pt;">(14) Ograniczenia sieciowe</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 15;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 332.9pt;" width="411">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: 9pt;">15. Wielkość
niedyspozycyjności wynikających z warunków eksploatacyjnych zgłoszonych dla
JW cieplnych świadczących usługi bilansujące w ramach rynku bilansującego
[MW] </span><span style="font-size: 9pt;">†</span><span style="font-size: 9pt;"></span></span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 120.2pt;" width="154">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: 9pt;">(15) Niedysp. JW cieplnych</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 16;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 332.9pt;" width="411">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: 9pt;">16.
Przewidywana generacja zasobów wytwórczych nieobjętych obowiązkami mocowymi
[MW]</span></p>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext; border-left: none; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 120.2pt;" width="154">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: 9pt;">(16) Gen. źr. bez obow. moc.</span></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="mso-yfti-irow: 17; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: 1pt solid windowtext; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt; width: 332.9pt;" width="411">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: 9pt;">17. Obowiązki
mocowe wszystkich jednostek rynku mocy [MW]</span></p>
</td>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: 9pt;">(17) Obowiązki mocowe</span></p>
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Nazwa zaktualizowana, odzwierciedlająca aktualną numerację publikowanych
wielkości.<br />
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publikowana od 24 kwietnia 2023 r.<br />
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<![endif]--><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="color: grey; font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: PL; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: background1; mso-themeshade: 128;">Źródło: Opracowanie
własne na podstawie: <span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="color: grey; mso-themecolor: background1; mso-themeshade: 128;"><a href="https://www.pse.pl/dane-systemowe/plany-pracy-kse/plan-koordynacyjny-5-letni/wielkosci-podstawowe/opis"><span style="color: grey; mso-themecolor: background1; mso-themeshade: 128;">https://www.pse.pl/dane-systemowe/plany-pracy-kse/plan-koordynacyjny-5-letni/wielkosci-podstawowe/opis</span></a></span></span></span><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: PL; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: PL; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span></span></p><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Co jest z sobą powiązane?</span></h2><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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5-letni zawiera wielkości odzwierciedlające popyt, podaż i salda występujące w
Krajowym Systemie Elektroenergetycznym. Zgodnie z tym kryterium poszczególne wielkości
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Message Header"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Salutation"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Date"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
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<![endif]--><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: PL; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Rysunek
1.</span></b><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: PL; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
Diagram powiązań między publikowanymi wielkościami w planie 5-letnim PSE.</span></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: PL; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9zcRXQ536pV2bYOxVN4GOJPm_jYUm40Vg9oU1rKD3dNmVEH-lRdgjEt8pn4vpEYlAqD0xyxwtegx3nIaW-HWpX4oyT350lsJBQi6WDX7RPRUqEQc_osIUmoBvR9LeGOUSIDDyUGuG9A0T0Enxm92gHX4cO4dp77lr6n_8IGMxYtR5ipeArvIwqFMsctDp/s1280/Powi%C4%85zania%20mi%C4%99dzy%20wielko%C5%9Bciami.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9zcRXQ536pV2bYOxVN4GOJPm_jYUm40Vg9oU1rKD3dNmVEH-lRdgjEt8pn4vpEYlAqD0xyxwtegx3nIaW-HWpX4oyT350lsJBQi6WDX7RPRUqEQc_osIUmoBvR9LeGOUSIDDyUGuG9A0T0Enxm92gHX4cO4dp77lr6n_8IGMxYtR5ipeArvIwqFMsctDp/w400-h225/Powi%C4%85zania%20mi%C4%99dzy%20wielko%C5%9Bciami.png" width="400" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<![endif]--><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" style="line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: PL; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Dzięki
schematowi dość szybko można zidentyfikować wielkości – (05), (06) i (09) –
które są kombinacjami liniowymi innych wielkości, i które będą powodować
współliniowość w przypadku budowy modelu prognostycznym.</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Oprócz
kombinacji liniowych w planie występują także wielkości, które są wyznaczane w
oparciu o inne, tj. (04), (08) i (10), i które niosą bardzo podobną wartość
informacyjną do tych wielkości, na których podstawie są budowane.</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Wielkości
(10) nie da się jednoznacznie sklasyfikować ściśle jako zmiennej zależnej,
ponieważ obok produkcji ze źródeł wiatrowych i fotowoltaicznych zawiera ona
także komponent różny od generacji z odnawialnych źródeł energii. </span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: arial;">W
przypadku występowania częściowych powiązań pomiędzy wielkościami, warto
rozważyć np. eliminację jednej ze zmiennych – źródłowej lub pochodnej – w celu
zapewnienia dobrej jakości modelu. </span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Współczynniki
korelacji liniowych między wielkościami – z pominięciem wielkości będącymi
kombinacjami liniowymi innych – zostały przedstawione w tabelach poniżej,
osobno dla wartości godzinowych i dobowych. Współczynniki korelacji zostały
obliczone w oparciu o ostatnie dostępne wartości, tj. te publikowane tuż przed
dostawą.</span></span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><span style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%;">Tabela
2.</span></b><span style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%;">
Współczynniki korelacji liniowych danych godzinowych pomiędzy wielkościami
planu 5-letniego publikowanymi co najmniej od 24 kwietnia 2021 r., z
pominięciem zmiennych będących kombinacjami liniowymi innych zmiennych.</span></span></span></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: arial;"></span></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiZHd1YbGJifwmlNSKZ-IVYguXCB6GyPGSvJCM0cVRb7DwKqTWwLWPJgnIOosNqSQLZARgY8MBo8m5p2eTCQyio_cvHm_s6-Ma3Qp334gftkyaL_yRub1HkBT6Cmapf-F6ubltDqTaRRKKmVe-EmuW_qY9OShAnhiDKvwa2YqKKv45NZuFU6jsaP5ir0oDV" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="493" data-original-width="945" height="209" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiZHd1YbGJifwmlNSKZ-IVYguXCB6GyPGSvJCM0cVRb7DwKqTWwLWPJgnIOosNqSQLZARgY8MBo8m5p2eTCQyio_cvHm_s6-Ma3Qp334gftkyaL_yRub1HkBT6Cmapf-F6ubltDqTaRRKKmVe-EmuW_qY9OShAnhiDKvwa2YqKKv45NZuFU6jsaP5ir0oDV=w400-h209" width="400" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><div style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%;">Tabela
3.</span></b><span style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%;">
Współczynniki korelacji liniowych danych dobowych (uśrednionych godzinowych) pomiędzy
wielkościami planu 5-letniego publikowanymi co najmniej od 24 kwietnia 2021 r.,
z pominięciem zmiennych będących kombinacjami liniowymi innych zmiennych.</span></div></span><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: arial;"></span></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjrdC7to5EH_mUSaq8IHt11-jlBxRBoCjLrXOr-sG3Rz1i6QoX7aKqc63bQ0EpCAn338fncb3tOsn4XlWQ81hYK2PpzdBLJNf8yTlTe5CGnygROWUruVN6_MpgV_oMu4cO-9qi2bqWmkjwjfMeWIWM5GCr-kJuF5aJnSWJWxYGREQqfNbjp210cWjIK5Fqs" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="493" data-original-width="945" height="209" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjrdC7to5EH_mUSaq8IHt11-jlBxRBoCjLrXOr-sG3Rz1i6QoX7aKqc63bQ0EpCAn338fncb3tOsn4XlWQ81hYK2PpzdBLJNf8yTlTe5CGnygROWUruVN6_MpgV_oMu4cO-9qi2bqWmkjwjfMeWIWM5GCr-kJuF5aJnSWJWxYGREQqfNbjp210cWjIK5Fqs=w400-h209" width="400" /></a></span></div><p></p><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Miary statystyczne</span></h2><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Podstawowe
miary statystyczne wielkości z planu 5-letniego zilustrowane są na poniższym
rysunku. Rysunek powstał na podstawie wartości publikowanych tuż przed dostawą
i nie zawiera wielkości publikowanych po 24 kwietnia 2023 r. ze względu na zbyt
krótki okres dostępnych danych, a także nie zawiera obowiązków mocowych
przyjmujących jak dotąd jedynie 11 różnych wartości poza zerem.</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><span style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%;">Rysunek
2.</span></b><span style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%;">
Rozstępy, średnie, odchylenia standardowe i skośności wielkości publikowanych w
planie 5-letnim.</span></span></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: arial;"></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiwslK1CqA4gsqhjVrwoE9B1oiAOQNDqjrdVfU5JrQ9AtiIw0FemJQrVzMUFjWXwivVrDExHtEjX2nZWZMuANdvpPi-mWIwTbuPeimM8qHQyxtP03r28_kzcnr4Rm21gHfR3KOZurFGUoOojgfyQLhJQ4sOapiPhfd5Gg7eebKRY8uIRX8TbkkYr8z6EecO" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1010" data-original-width="945" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiwslK1CqA4gsqhjVrwoE9B1oiAOQNDqjrdVfU5JrQ9AtiIw0FemJQrVzMUFjWXwivVrDExHtEjX2nZWZMuANdvpPi-mWIwTbuPeimM8qHQyxtP03r28_kzcnr4Rm21gHfR3KOZurFGUoOojgfyQLhJQ4sOapiPhfd5Gg7eebKRY8uIRX8TbkkYr8z6EecO=w375-h400" width="375" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><br /></span><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></p><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Co wynika z analizy głównych składowych?</span></h2><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Wyniki
analizy głównych składowych (ang. Principal Component Analysis – PCA) dla
znormalizowanych wielkości publikowanych w planie 5-letnim przedstawione są w
poniższych tabelach. Normalizacja polegała na odjęciu wartości średniej i
podzieleniu tak otrzymanej różnicy przez odchylenie standardowe zaobserwowanych
wartości.</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Kolorem
zielonym oznaczone są wartości bezwzględnie większe lub równe 30% – arbitralnie
wybranej wartości progowej, przy której uznałem, że dana wielkość ma istotny
wpływ na konstrukcję głównej składowej. Pierwsze wystąpienia wartości powyżej
wartości progowej są otoczone ramką.</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: arial;">W
pierwszych wierszach tabel są kolejne indeksy głównych składowych; dla nich
zielone tło oznacza, ilu znormalizowanych zmiennych potrzeba, by użyć
wszystkich dostępnych wielkości, których czynniki przekroczą wartość progową.</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><span style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%;">Tabela
4.</span></b><span style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%;"> Wartości
głównych składowych i narastające procenty objaśnionej wariancji całkowitej dla
znormalizowanych wielkości godzinowych publikowanych w planie 5-letnim.</span></span></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEglWVlOm5PdYgBF0U9QQAgcqk3gueKtARXGuoO7l7iVg16Gfb-yctit8bwFEkAZcym8JZBZWF2YzVKdAXP-yc2u0lY2XXnE0WnEuOcjaovBPiao1kOznKdbo6GPIaUU3FqQbyiX3l9vrBLmQctfytZOblDn-UfR_vVuqX0D0xqByOOkUwYSn_8O2bXtfUvC" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><img alt="" data-original-height="528" data-original-width="945" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEglWVlOm5PdYgBF0U9QQAgcqk3gueKtARXGuoO7l7iVg16Gfb-yctit8bwFEkAZcym8JZBZWF2YzVKdAXP-yc2u0lY2XXnE0WnEuOcjaovBPiao1kOznKdbo6GPIaUU3FqQbyiX3l9vrBLmQctfytZOblDn-UfR_vVuqX0D0xqByOOkUwYSn_8O2bXtfUvC=w400-h224" width="400" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><div style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%;">Tabela
5.</span></b><span style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%;"> Wartości
głównych składowych i narastające procenty objaśnionej wariancji całkowitej dla
znormalizowanych wielkości dobowych publikowanych w planie 5-letnim.</span></div></span><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjoVLx8jrAF2sxeWTQMzR10yg2B_G_H-R_bKfTDXobaiXryVZPNMJNuGxo7AE_pzizsuGwuEpB-7wK7pXXV_0ACU1c7C9GWj5qxG5pB7eYalEpbh9BZTacMnSEeUlBJjb_CBKeo-S7AfjCMmDfhobOPSkH-p0g0fH70c3dNfid7N9VSlUnClRh-5biNtjBP" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><img alt="" data-original-height="528" data-original-width="945" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjoVLx8jrAF2sxeWTQMzR10yg2B_G_H-R_bKfTDXobaiXryVZPNMJNuGxo7AE_pzizsuGwuEpB-7wK7pXXV_0ACU1c7C9GWj5qxG5pB7eYalEpbh9BZTacMnSEeUlBJjb_CBKeo-S7AfjCMmDfhobOPSkH-p0g0fH70c3dNfid7N9VSlUnClRh-5biNtjBP=w400-h224" width="400" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><div style="text-align: justify;"><span>Ostatnie
wiersze tabel przedstawiają skumulowane procenty całkowitej wariancji objaśnianej
przez dany zestaw głównych składowych. Już 4 składowe wystarczą, by wyjaśnić
ponad 80% całkowitej zmienności występującej we wszystkich 11 badanych
zmiennych.</span></div></span><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">Warto zwrócić
uwagę na łączenie się zmiennych w grupy oraz na znaki, które towarzyszą
zmiennym. Stanowią one odzwierciedlenie zdekomponowanych korelacji przedstawionych
w tabelach korelacji z poprzedniej sekcji. Można na ich podstawie budować
agregaty ściśle powiązanych ze sobą zmiennych, które mogą w decydujący sposób
wpływać na inne prognozowane wielkości.</span><br /></span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Aby
przekonać się, jakie wyniki dają kolejne kombinacje głównych składowych w
porównaniu z uwzględnieniem ww. 11 zmiennych, wybrałem cenę rozliczeniową rynku
bilansującego jako zmienną objaśnianą. Wyniki różnych modeli regresji względem
głównych składowych PCA, wyrażone jako średnie bezwzględne błędy procentowe
(ang. Mean Absolute Percentage Error – MAPE), są przedstawione jako różnice
względem modelu regresji względem wszystkich nieznormalizowanych zmiennych.
Oczywiście, dla 11 głównych składowych różnice pomiędzy MAPE są równe zero,
gdyż są to matematycznie tożsame modele regresji względem zmiennych
znormalizowanych i nieznormalizowanych.</span></span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><span style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%;">Rysunek
3.</span></b><span style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%;"> Różnice
MAPE dla prognoz godzinowych (górny wykres) i dobowych (dolny wykres) dla cen
rynku bilansującego pomiędzy regresją PCA względem zadanej liczby głównych
składowych (od 1 do 11) powstałych na podstawie znormalizowanych wielkości
podanych w tabeli 4 i 5, a regresją względem wszystkich 11 zmiennych podanych w
tabeli 2 i 3. Okres uczenia (kalibracji) modelu to 2021-07-15 – 2022-12-31 i
jest rozłączny z okresem walidacji 2023-01-01 – 2023-07-31.</span></span></span></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgFfSYt1Ub2pTb2ZPqFin5kLwvabsUykK1I9XwOy5pBFPyEL0JCgMYbgw_-YH6NwEurYvPd35yQSC5hy6OAqoiy22AZEz1c4TiPsa6hD0sVlcRe_ncMTUSFTjh5R4lHfhACfUL35tVeMq16s6NRl1b2rRa8YvxCCEEaw8X9gUPaMjWLiJ60u-Db27DOtIoM" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><img alt="" data-original-height="512" data-original-width="945" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgFfSYt1Ub2pTb2ZPqFin5kLwvabsUykK1I9XwOy5pBFPyEL0JCgMYbgw_-YH6NwEurYvPd35yQSC5hy6OAqoiy22AZEz1c4TiPsa6hD0sVlcRe_ncMTUSFTjh5R4lHfhACfUL35tVeMq16s6NRl1b2rRa8YvxCCEEaw8X9gUPaMjWLiJ60u-Db27DOtIoM=w400-h216" width="400" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiCv3JmCD0daCRzzMX3C1r_vfm0AQxOcdreyPwWM_MBavjkuvuuEzisT5tGI-xasAnS0uGf079pALom-LT4vY1aJQhmSZJdgmdjdaoe1gkjTM66AXxBSNXYqz8TQffDTcGeSZwlde8prfDt8AdhzoXVo2pUzgUHt-35bd2ZD0KK29sSfFIdz2tiKOC-ID53" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><img alt="" data-original-height="512" data-original-width="945" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiCv3JmCD0daCRzzMX3C1r_vfm0AQxOcdreyPwWM_MBavjkuvuuEzisT5tGI-xasAnS0uGf079pALom-LT4vY1aJQhmSZJdgmdjdaoe1gkjTM66AXxBSNXYqz8TQffDTcGeSZwlde8prfDt8AdhzoXVo2pUzgUHt-35bd2ZD0KK29sSfFIdz2tiKOC-ID53=w400-h216" width="400" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><div style="text-align: justify;"><span>Interesujące,
że najlepsze efekty – mierzone za pomocą miary MAPE – ma w obu przypadkach
model z tylko jedną główną składową PCA. Miara MAPE dla prognoz cen rynku bilansującego
otrzymanych przy użyciu tylko tej jednej składowej jest mniejsza odpowiednio o
7% (prognozy godzinowe) i o 10% (prognozy dobowe) od prognoz otrzymanych przy
użyciu regresji względem wszystkich zmiennych. Dla prognoz godzinowych znacząco
lepsze rezultaty (tj. o co najmniej 2%) mają jeszcze modele z trzema i czterema
składowymi PCA. Najgorsze efekty występują przy ok. 5-8 składowych PCA.</span></div></span><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Co się dzieje im bliżej dostawy?</span></h2><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Inną
interesującą własnością wielkości planu 5-letniego jest to, że wykazują one systematyczne
prawidłowości, jeśli chodzi o zmiany publikowanych wartości w miarę zbliżania
się do godziny dostawy.</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Na
kolejnych wykresach znajdują się średnie i odchylenia standardowe bezwzględnych
różnic dla różnych wielkości (niebieska linia i symetryczne „wąsy”). Horyzonty
dostawy zostały pogrupowane w osiem arbitralnie wybranych zakresów, tzn.:</span></span></p><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>powyżej pół roku (> 6m),</li><li>pomiędzy jednym a sześcioma miesiącami (1-6 m),</li><li>pomiędzy dziesięcioma a trzydziestoma dniami (10-30 d),</li><li>pomiędzy jednym a dziesięcioma dniami (1-10 d),</li><li>pomiędzy dwunastoma a dwudziestoma czteroma godzinami (12-24 h),</li><li>pomiędzy trzema a dwunastoma godzinami (3-12 h),</li><li>pomiędzy godziną a trzema godzinami (1-3 h),</li><li>poniżej jednej godziny (< 1 h).</li></ul></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 107%;">Dla
każdego z ww. zakresów podano liczbę obserwacji, na których podstawie
wyznaczono średnie i odchylenia standardowe. Liczby obserwacji są zaznaczone
liniami kropkowanymi.</span></div></span></span></div><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><span style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%;">Rysunek
4.</span></b><span style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%;">
Wykresy średnich i odchyleń standardowych różnic pomiędzy wartościami
publikowanymi w różnych horyzontach prognozy planu 5-letniego a ostatnią
wartością opublikowaną przed dostawą dla różnych wielkości planu 5-letniego –
niebieskie linie (lewe osie). Liczby obserwacji, na których podstawie
wyznaczono średnie i odchylenia standardowe, zaznaczono liniami kropkowanymi
(prawe osie).</span></span></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjqKduRyUMzdRj1xJ64jPjeef0JBXWwsBUYPiYvQ6IYHYdAza0Q7QWe3n9BJ7Ao-4eDuUgOZVkQe5KGL-KvoGpIIKX4p0_sCYW2D4rGhsiDwH0nWQ5Rsh8rm1hQLHakC3FUubb6ns10nTuZ8KP9yMHtw2s26Y5wEov38sRUMvdobqbTuM_N-1zFkTxEcarO" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><img alt="" data-original-height="509" data-original-width="945" height="215" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjqKduRyUMzdRj1xJ64jPjeef0JBXWwsBUYPiYvQ6IYHYdAza0Q7QWe3n9BJ7Ao-4eDuUgOZVkQe5KGL-KvoGpIIKX4p0_sCYW2D4rGhsiDwH0nWQ5Rsh8rm1hQLHakC3FUubb6ns10nTuZ8KP9yMHtw2s26Y5wEov38sRUMvdobqbTuM_N-1zFkTxEcarO=w400-h215" width="400" /></span></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhUctZD5lkS4VSOHFJVBEPqUJJD88kg6fw29JLTwq6Tlv4wHfgeP7cqyaCWz6qgDmQikDLz-k7LVTsf45WCzeCpkvXtJ-A9C3g5B_RlbifATpdLgC8HmfbhO2HvOg1E_TV-RumnOHx2E64OHdOzx-Hmtw57qelfK6t52VhrDE_hnXFdoghHFlBYUJz2VCz0" style="margin-left: 1em; 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jest to, że idąc od lewej strony niektóre wykresy zbiegają do zera od góry,
inne zaś od dołu. Jest to zapewne związane z ostrożnościowym podejściem do
planowania, tj. im dłuższy horyzont prognozy, tym wyższe są wartości dla
wielkości związanych z zaspokojeniem oczekiwanego popytu – (03), (04), (05),
(07), (08) i (09) – oraz tym niższe wartości dla wielkości związanych ze
spodziewaną podażą, na którą operator sieci nie ma bezpośredniego wpływu –
(10), (11), (12) i (16). Są także wielkości, które zachowują się stabilnie –
(13) i (14), tj. najprawdopodobniej w ich przypadku zakłada się, że będą one
bliskie zakładanej wartości (najczęściej zeru).</span></p></span><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Jeśli
więc kalibracja modelu prognostycznego odbywałaby się na danych ostatnio
dostępnych, tj. tych tuż przed dostawą, a nie na danych, które faktycznie można
zaobserwować w horyzoncie, na jaki tworzona jest prognoza, to pewne wielkości
będą zawsze średnio przeszacowane, inne zawsze średnio niedoszacowane, co
wpłynie na pogorszenie jakości prognozy.</span></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="line-height: 107%;"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Warto też dodać, że pewna
prawidłowość związana z różnicami przed dostawą występuje także w zależności od
godziny doby dostawy. Przykładowo, dla wielkości „(03) Zapotrzebowanie sieci”
dla godzin od 10 do 18 następuje większe przeszacowanie dla dłuższych
horyzontów prognozy. Jest to prawdopodobnie związane z wyższym zapotrzebowaniem
w ciągu godzin szczytowych. Odchylenie standardowe również jest dla nich wyższe,
co jest pochodną większej niestabilności zapotrzebowania na moc w godzinach
szczytu.<span style="background: black; border: 1pt none black; color: black; font-size: 0pt; line-height: 107%; padding: 0cm;"> <span lang="X-NONE"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></p><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%;">Rysunek
5.</span></b><span style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%;">
Wykresy średnich i odchyleń standardowych różnic pomiędzy wartościami
publikowanymi w różnych horyzontach prognozy planu 5-letniego a ostatnią
wartością dostępną przed godziną dostawy dla kolejnych godzin doby.</span></div></span><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi9mVGwcznW5kUpNCSzUBbSOmfekhwG3LvJvR8zQJfuf2TyDpzpt7rWpxtAeAGEcvnxPp9B2D144pDzSHcHAL_fZDk0uGNBz1i5guwLFmkEt82XsM_9wzD9y9bM5-6s0wxRQaq2xl0WQMNh0rL2thmtRIfPG66cjG1Oe0cHjEC9c7sTl_TUffHXkThY_iXY" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><img alt="" data-original-height="252" data-original-width="467" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi9mVGwcznW5kUpNCSzUBbSOmfekhwG3LvJvR8zQJfuf2TyDpzpt7rWpxtAeAGEcvnxPp9B2D144pDzSHcHAL_fZDk0uGNBz1i5guwLFmkEt82XsM_9wzD9y9bM5-6s0wxRQaq2xl0WQMNh0rL2thmtRIfPG66cjG1Oe0cHjEC9c7sTl_TUffHXkThY_iXY=w400-h216" width="400" /></span></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; 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text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhFxnfgVVMAFsWFsmaywOmkXNMKEdsQK2BW5u2cSzMQR9IDB9VqaKAVghk6H0LoH2h-YdN7FihcSGYYU1QtAEX6kNv-vKHywMaqd0lWVQV6LFcuYSq1qhCWCSrunw3l1RTKaB3AGSO-XBsc1oe0ykAopkEdbpXqV3WKuQJVhEsbMHTu6mGMh_509sMEC-ro" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><img alt="" data-original-height="252" data-original-width="467" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhFxnfgVVMAFsWFsmaywOmkXNMKEdsQK2BW5u2cSzMQR9IDB9VqaKAVghk6H0LoH2h-YdN7FihcSGYYU1QtAEX6kNv-vKHywMaqd0lWVQV6LFcuYSq1qhCWCSrunw3l1RTKaB3AGSO-XBsc1oe0ykAopkEdbpXqV3WKuQJVhEsbMHTu6mGMh_509sMEC-ro=w400-h216" width="400" /></span></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjDI_FSmuLQkRwZZ7WSfcrfRU8WlsvqXGlJyurTeqYB6my2yEJ_2PPxAv3e2niI1k6F2K8Dz2eGpRlsmoMFpxnFG0SyZC9f5S6CZmrWwCPwiKkMqsGXxjCyYA-XraCHhBDT2aBV3sPrWKcHfjk7mLwD7-h7ghyvlsCNAHTsqEF2JWig3WfytDTXBxr-MJuJ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><img alt="" data-original-height="252" data-original-width="467" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjDI_FSmuLQkRwZZ7WSfcrfRU8WlsvqXGlJyurTeqYB6my2yEJ_2PPxAv3e2niI1k6F2K8Dz2eGpRlsmoMFpxnFG0SyZC9f5S6CZmrWwCPwiKkMqsGXxjCyYA-XraCHhBDT2aBV3sPrWKcHfjk7mLwD7-h7ghyvlsCNAHTsqEF2JWig3WfytDTXBxr-MJuJ=w400-h216" width="400" /></span></a></div></div></div><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p>ForecastPowerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15455748670417054077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7450671834108487206.post-47322639316681445702019-11-08T08:18:00.002-08:002019-11-08T08:49:56.472-08:00How to Quote Business for Electricity - Profile Projection<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9hRdxol-u2XaMf85oEOzJQXM1Txbg013tjBuJrSXbbNjyaHgLkQXMPNb9uUJb8h_c2Gf8-in__VtXEBRKFTB6uBCAK5VltIBxuWYJ4H-t3HVNbmPt56al4BR-eDuShyi-9DUbo7sjJeE3/s1600/profile.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="375" data-original-width="698" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9hRdxol-u2XaMf85oEOzJQXM1Txbg013tjBuJrSXbbNjyaHgLkQXMPNb9uUJb8h_c2Gf8-in__VtXEBRKFTB6uBCAK5VltIBxuWYJ4H-t3HVNbmPt56al4BR-eDuShyi-9DUbo7sjJeE3/s400/profile.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><b>To precisely determine the offer electricity price for an end consumer, the projection of their consumption has to be calculated in advance. Such a projection may be obtained by applying various methods. In this post, I present a variant of the algebraic method, which I used <a href="https://forecastpower.blogspot.com/2019/09/how-to-quote-business-for-electricity.html">in the previous article</a> to calculate the projection of price structure. The volume projection should reflect the shape that is inherent to the group of consumers that a client belongs to, as well as cycles – yearly, weekly and daily (depicted above) and also usually depressed consumption in public holidays and edge days and, finally, be based on actual data.</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">The hourly load volume projection for a future delivery period is usually based on the hourly consumption observed in the past. If we have such a past load profile for at least one year, then we can project for a future period, for example, by applying the yearly and weekly (alternatively monthly) averaging for the defined day types and day hours. The full description of this averaging is contained in section “Curve Shape” <a href="https://forecastpower.blogspot.com/2019/09/how-to-quote-business-for-electricity.html">in the article about a price structure projection</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">The profile projection created from such averaging will reflect – just like the price structure – yearly, weekly and daily cycles and usually depressed consumption in public holidays and edge days, if the actual data present such regularity. The sum of the hourly consumption may be quite easily transformed to the contracted delivery volume by multiplying each projected value by a certain number or by adding to each projected value another number.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">However, what if we do not have actual data? Then, the best way is to use the branch profile that a consumer belongs to (cinema, shopping centre, dairy, office, etc.). In case we do not have such data as well, we can use a standard profile published by a distribution system operator. If installed devices make it possible to measure consumption in zones, then a branch or standard profile may be further transformed to reflect load in each zone based on the invoices issued on a yearly or monthly basis. The load proportions can be then altered in such a way to correspond to those observed in the past.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">In case of a purchasing group, that is if just one offer price is to be quoted for multiple entities with different load characteristics, then the volume projections are added in such proportions in which they constitute the purchasing group. Of course, the load profile of each entity may be adjusted based on actual data before it is finally added to the group.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Should you have any remarks or questions – please leave a comment or feel free to contact me.</span></div>
ForecastPowerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15455748670417054077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7450671834108487206.post-22350116605838783372019-11-08T08:09:00.001-08:002019-11-08T08:09:28.063-08:00Po ile sprzedać energię firmie - Projekcja profilu<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSOmOLyV8oMIwhxcYTki_xHXrDRPWL6QS026cvz1gVdPZzbhHJBo_HY7fIQS7hntuVYWVnp1iEXM1sqrm-Df-dD31K751dnSIo5sCUF3FjGL9dX1sHAGH-_GNkHvZ20PpU_cfEOT4Nng7X/s1600/profil.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="375" data-original-width="698" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSOmOLyV8oMIwhxcYTki_xHXrDRPWL6QS026cvz1gVdPZzbhHJBo_HY7fIQS7hntuVYWVnp1iEXM1sqrm-Df-dD31K751dnSIo5sCUF3FjGL9dX1sHAGH-_GNkHvZ20PpU_cfEOT4Nng7X/s400/profil.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Po to, by precyzyjnie określić cenę energii elektrycznej dla odbiorcy końcowego, trzeba znać projekcję jego wolumenu zużycia. Taką projekcję można uzyskać różnymi metodami. W tym poście opiszę wariant metody algebraicznej, której użyłem <a href="https://forecastpower.blogspot.com/2019/09/po-ile-sprzedac-energie-firmie.html">w poprzednim artykule</a> do obliczenia projekcji cen. Projekcja wolumenu powinna odzwierciedlać kształt właściwy grupie odbiorców, do której należy klient, cykle – roczny, tygodniowy i dobowy (przedstawione powyżej), a także z reguły niższe zużycie w święta i dni okołoświąteczne oraz mieć oparcie w danych pomiarowych.</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Dobowo-godzinowa projekcja wolumenu energii elektrycznej dla przyszłego okresu dostawy najczęściej opiera się na zaobserwowanym w przeszłości dobowo-godzinowym zużyciu. Jeśli mamy taki historyczny profil co najmniej dla jednego roku, wtedy projekcję na okres przyszły możemy utworzyć stosując np. uśrednianie roczne oraz tygodniowe (ew. miesięczne) dla zdefiniowanych typów dni i godzin doby. Opis tego uśredniania zawarłem w sekcji „Kształt krzywej” <a href="https://forecastpower.blogspot.com/2019/09/po-ile-sprzedac-energie-firmie.html">w artykule dot. projekcji struktury cen</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Projekcja profilu, która powstanie w wyniku takiego uśredniania, będzie – podobnie jak struktura cen – odzwierciedlać cykle (roczny, tygodniowy i dobowy) oraz z reguły zmniejszone zużycie w święta i dniach okołoświątecznych, jeśli dane historyczne to potwierdzają. Sumę dobowo-godzinowych zużyć można sprowadzić do zakontraktowanego wolumenu dostawy dość łatwo przez przemnożenie każdej wartości projekcji przez pewną liczbę lub przez dodanie do każdej wartości projekcji pewnej liczby.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Co jednak, jeśli nie dysponujemy pomiarami dobowo-godzinowymi? Wtedy najlepiej użyjmy profilu dla branży, do której należy odbiorca (np. kino, centrum handlowe, mleczarnia, biurowiec). Jeśli i takich danych nie posiadamy, możemy użyć jednego ze standardowych profili publikowanych przez operatorów sieci dystrybucyjnych. Jeśli układy pomiarowe umożliwiają pomiar w strefach, profile takie dostosowujemy uwzględniając wartości w strefach na podstawie wystawionych faktur w ujęciu rocznym lub miesięcznym. Proporcje wolumenów w strefach mogą być wtedy zmienione w taki sposób, by odpowiadały proporcjom zaobserwowanym w przeszłości.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">W przypadku zaś grupy zakupowej, tj. gdy ma być podana tylko jedna oferta dla wielu podmiotów o różnych charakterystykach zużyć, projekcje wolumenów dodaje się w takich proporcjach, w jakich składają się na grupę zakupową. Oczywiście, profil zużycia każdego podmiotu może być dostosowany na podstawie przeszłych pomiarów zanim zostanie dodany do grupy.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Zachęcam do pozostawiania komentarzy oraz zapraszam do kontaktu.</span></div>
ForecastPowerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15455748670417054077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7450671834108487206.post-21900773123797870842019-09-16T07:11:00.000-07:002019-09-16T21:50:43.030-07:00How to Quote Business for Electricity? - Price Structure<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-BpGOscdtc-SW9tqjzuPCIZfVckIdlUwHc6TWshMM7BKpiSfXFxrj2MicgFchY6StCnQjqNI6bWiZnM2CMMuhHeIsPHU-hWvsBSGxtL_cdBaLBV7pOQnh77vgE1ffF-5xEXOuuRWj6mbu/s1600/prices_3d+animated+%2528en%2529.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="375" data-original-width="698" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-BpGOscdtc-SW9tqjzuPCIZfVckIdlUwHc6TWshMM7BKpiSfXFxrj2MicgFchY6StCnQjqNI6bWiZnM2CMMuhHeIsPHU-hWvsBSGxtL_cdBaLBV7pOQnh77vgE1ffF-5xEXOuuRWj6mbu/s400/prices_3d+animated+%2528en%2529.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><b>Hourly Price Forward Curve (HPFC) is used – among others – to determine the actual energy portfolio value. It is also necessary – as I wrote in the <a href="https://forecastpower.blogspot.com/2019/08/how-to-quote-business-for-energy-1.html" target="_blank">previous article</a> – to perform a valuation of the client’s profile. How is HPFC calculated then? This article is about one of the algorithms, the algebraic method.</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">What is HPFC exactly? It is the series of the energy prices, ordered in the given date range. For example, for the year 2020, it would be 8784 values. HPFC is determined most frequently based on the hourly spot market prices. In such a case it is a price forecast that is expected to observe on the spot market, having taken into consideration both past spot prices and the actual forward product prices. Such a forecast (or projection) should equally respect:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">1) the observed cycles, that is yearly, weekly and daily ones,</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">2) the calendar, that is, on average, lower prices for bank holidays and for the adjacent days,</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">3) the current price levels of the forward products (no-arbitrage condition),</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">4) the changes in structure resulting from the instantly increasing share of the generation of the renewable sources.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">The two first points and the last one have an influence on the shape of the price curve, while the third one impacts the expected price level of the projection. In this article, I will concentrate on the first three points.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Curve Shape</span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">How to determine the hourly price forward structure in order to reflect the cycles and the calendar? We need the historical hourly spot prices for that. The longer the forecast period, the longer the observed hourly spot prices is needed. Generally, the following rule of thumb is applied: the period of the observed data should be at least two times longer than the forecast period. Let us assume that we intend to make a price projection for years 2020-2021. The observed hourly data could be then taken e.g. from years 2015-2019.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><b>Averaging by Years</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">The graph below simplistically presents the observed prices in the form of the three-dimensional matrix for years 2015-2019, for 52 weeks of the year and for 9 day types (Mo – Monday, Tu-Th – “Tuesday-Thursday”, that is either Tuesday or Wednesday or Thursday, Fr – Friday, Sa – Saturday, Su – Sunday, Ho – a bank holiday, Be – day before a holiday, Af – day after a holiday, Br – bridge day, that is a day between two holidays, e.g. in Poland 2nd May, or a day between a holiday and either Saturday or Sunday, e.g. in Poland Friday after Corpus Christi). Naturally, the other day-type-divisions are possible. The hour dimension is “reduced”, that is each point of this three-dimensional space contains 24 price values corresponding to 24 day hours. For simplicity, in case of the spring clock shift, the value for the missing hour may be replaced by the average of the value before and after the clock shift, and in case of the autumn clock shift, the value coming from the additional hour may be averaged with the value from the hour immediately before the clock shift.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">For simplicity, I marked only five points in the form of spheres on the graph – each of them reflects the weight I assign to the price observations in each year. Thus, the older the observation, the smaller the weight is. In total there should be 2 340 points = 5 years x 52 weeks x 9 types of day. This, however, will not be true, that is not all places (points) in the matrix will be filled up due to the moving bank holidays which may fall in various weeks of a year. In any case, it considers not only the bank holidays themselves but also the days adjacent to them. Instead of dividing a year into 52 weeks one can use the division into 12 months, but this will not solve the problem – for example, Easter may fall either in March or in April. How it can be maintained – I wrote in the following section. In case of the week-granulation, the sporadically encountered 53rd week may be appended either to 1st or to 52nd week.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Essentially, the algorithm of the price structure determination for the future years (for now, without level adjustment) comes down to rewriting of the averaged values from the past years for any given week of the year (or month) and for any given day type. Let us note that we do not need the year dimension when determining the price projection for the future period. Namely, when we are to determine the day prices e.g. for the 1st January 2020, we just need the averaged prices for a holiday (Ho) falling on the first week (or month) of a year. In consequence, the three-dimensional matrix may be flattened, leaving only two of its dimensions, that is the week (or month) dimension and the day-type one. When averaging by years, the weights assigned to each year should be applied.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><b>Averaging by Weeks</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">As a result of flattening described in the above section, we will get the two-dimensional matrix with 468 elements = 52 weeks x 9 types of day. Basically, each element should contain 24 values, each of them being averaged by years and by day types (e.g. for ‘Tuesday-Thursday’ in a week without a holiday we expect 3 such days, and in Poland, for example, in the first week of year there are two bank holidays – New Year’s Day and Epiphany).</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcszgE-M6adcO79gebd8bCowtVjJ1a_gscF4hBu0lKvocmVn2ISdANWwwtIhag8-GG93vohb-vEXS-Xg2S7wEjp-MVgx8kDckaPo5Q1tw5CYYlBoz35K7a5K3eCEUzFHcisW5Ltk3i3GF_/s1600/prices_2d+%2528en%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="375" data-original-width="698" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcszgE-M6adcO79gebd8bCowtVjJ1a_gscF4hBu0lKvocmVn2ISdANWwwtIhag8-GG93vohb-vEXS-Xg2S7wEjp-MVgx8kDckaPo5Q1tw5CYYlBoz35K7a5K3eCEUzFHcisW5Ltk3i3GF_/s400/prices_2d+%2528en%2529.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Not all 468 points will be filled up with values then. Additionally, some of them may contain outliers, which, most probably, will not be observed in the same week for the same day type in the future. Fortunately, the moving averaging of adjacent weeks (months) may come forward. Each point, that is each set of 24 values may be averaged by using appropriate week (or month) weights from the adjacent points. It is natural to assign the biggest weight to the central node and the smaller weights to the adjacent nodes, respectively. On the above graph, I marked them for the one chosen element, that is for the day type “Ho” (bank holiday) that falls on the 30th week of a year. Thus, the resulting values for the 30th week are the result of the averaging of weeks (nodes) from 27 to 33. The diameters of the points reflect the weights attributed to the respective weeks.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">On the data edges, that is in the vicinity of 1st and 52nd week of a year, one can use the elements from the end or from the beginning of a year, respectively. If the above algorithm does not ensure that all matrix elements are populated, the missing data may be estimated based on the other day types, for example, one can assume values from Sundays for bank holidays, and for the holiday-adjacent days the values from typical days that are neither Saturday nor Sunday can be used as proxies. The same procedure can be applied in the case, when we require an element (node) contains the averaged data based on minimum, say, 3 observations, and if this condition is not fulfilled. In other words, we state that 3 observations are not enough to be representative for making a forecast. In such a case we can replace the missing data with the data coming from the point (node) with the closest characteristics.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">As a result of the above calculations, we will receive a “cast” which can be applied to each day of the forecast period. After determining the day type and the week (month) number, we have 24 price values that are the result of the year and day-types averaging for the previous observations.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">The graph below presents the price projection for years 2020-2021, yet before bringing it to the level of standard products that are actually observed on the forward market. It is worth noting the year cycle that is the similarity of the curve shape between the year 2020 and the year 2021.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgS7VIt-0PCjPizwKr0JSVm-HSc_oa9bQdDVGO27Vk9Snb-ph324xlPkktyZeuCR5MsxZJl3c-BS36bQmpn8iotkpz7QLDVe3K-c9mXSW24sGtexOid4cQhsSXeQdAEKYMhy74O0BLwY9sG/s1600/cycle+year+%2528en%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="375" data-original-width="698" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgS7VIt-0PCjPizwKr0JSVm-HSc_oa9bQdDVGO27Vk9Snb-ph324xlPkktyZeuCR5MsxZJl3c-BS36bQmpn8iotkpz7QLDVe3K-c9mXSW24sGtexOid4cQhsSXeQdAEKYMhy74O0BLwY9sG/s400/cycle+year+%2528en%2529.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">After proper scaling of the graph (2nd and 3rd week of 2020), one can observe the week cycle as well. Note, that 6th January 2020 (a bank holiday falling on Monday) has significantly lower price level than the price level from the next Monday on 13th January 2020.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKRzlZu2udHbw94v3uU759bCt4fnHQETlwAHYWq7Fn49X_QVM7lCA-BFLbSD-NTIvz1uQJ9WExkR_sP-IDBqDgemQQ0aPUCL5kZy8YgK-NT7ZtVxf80hmMIc8oCN-FkGsDHpzpK-nMG2ue/s1600/cycle+week+%2528en%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="375" data-original-width="698" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKRzlZu2udHbw94v3uU759bCt4fnHQETlwAHYWq7Fn49X_QVM7lCA-BFLbSD-NTIvz1uQJ9WExkR_sP-IDBqDgemQQ0aPUCL5kZy8YgK-NT7ZtVxf80hmMIc8oCN-FkGsDHpzpK-nMG2ue/s400/cycle+week+%2528en%2529.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">To present the day cycle I chose 13th and 14th January 2020:</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0_eA3M-DyBMhlNEkCNB01RQTH47_tLcnPg_4-ezsCCcva3iUiRa9-Lodi5E0gLwzzjGJifBUmWWGUDv8t1fOEwOyrxxwIUl7qKKK9zOOhHdS4Bnf20DQ2LQyEsB2d3gtcv3jK9gYobxSw/s1600/cycle+day+%2528en%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="375" data-original-width="698" height="171" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0_eA3M-DyBMhlNEkCNB01RQTH47_tLcnPg_4-ezsCCcva3iUiRa9-Lodi5E0gLwzzjGJifBUmWWGUDv8t1fOEwOyrxxwIUl7qKKK9zOOhHdS4Bnf20DQ2LQyEsB2d3gtcv3jK9gYobxSw/s320/cycle+day+%2528en%2529.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Summing up, the resulting price structure (or its shape) fulfils all conditions imposed at the beginning that is it reflects both the calendar and the observed cycles on the energy market.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Price Level</span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">The price structure projection calculated in a way presented above does not reflect the price levels of the forward products, which is schematically presented on the graph below (the projection level is too low due to the dramatic increase of the prices over the current year):</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEFsdGudaw0xnj7bNEr4fNb1nPPuV0TmOKbnjJO4ddUGT7D8Pf7wddFKO66bLldor5CcC5Tjs_ZHWmorOHoFlEZq1KIyWGEhpLCsw6Wo6ZaKy-UyEoH1n2oKg6VO3FWDMAZXJBCzkB8M7F/s1600/hpfc+unscaled+%2528en%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="375" data-original-width="698" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEFsdGudaw0xnj7bNEr4fNb1nPPuV0TmOKbnjJO4ddUGT7D8Pf7wddFKO66bLldor5CcC5Tjs_ZHWmorOHoFlEZq1KIyWGEhpLCsw6Wo6ZaKy-UyEoH1n2oKg6VO3FWDMAZXJBCzkB8M7F/s400/hpfc+unscaled+%2528en%2529.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">The orange lines represent the price levels resulting from the quotes of the forward products in the middle of September 2019. At this time, the following forward contracts existed on the Polish market:</span></div>
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<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">quarter 1 of the year 2020,</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">the year 2020,</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">the year 2021.</span></li>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">For simplicity, I assumed that only base products exist, that is I skipped peak ones. The price in quarters 2-4 in the year 2020 has been calculated in such a way to give the overall price in 2020 along with the price in the first quarter, after averaging by all delivery hours. Of course, this is another simplification, for it is worth determining the implied (artificial) prices of the forward products e.g. based on the averaged quotients of the quarter to calendar (year) products observed in the past.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">In order to fulfil the no-arbitrage condition, all values of the projected price (the blue line) are to be brought to such a level that their averages in the following delivery periods correspond to the actual price levels of the forward products (the orange lines). It can be achieved by using two methods: multiplicative and additive. The first one comes down to multiplying each price value by the proper number so that the required price level is satisfied. The additive method relies on adding the proper number to each price value to satisfy the required price level. Both methods have their advantages and disadvantages which I will elaborate on here.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">On the below graph I presented the price projection that has been brought to the level of the forward products by using the multiplicative method.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKB731SAV3T8VLOj6FzVeyhVmo8WnjYGh-dBxD2PmVVUmCmlC1vPL1yjrFsAGGANby7H4q27ADd0GCyba9F5KXW3H9jtJcBGT1m9z1HDzaIQkzT96lAB2o4eCFBBbuMubRtz_mN8n-iWEu/s1600/hpfc+scaled+%2528en%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="375" data-original-width="698" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKB731SAV3T8VLOj6FzVeyhVmo8WnjYGh-dBxD2PmVVUmCmlC1vPL1yjrFsAGGANby7H4q27ADd0GCyba9F5KXW3H9jtJcBGT1m9z1HDzaIQkzT96lAB2o4eCFBBbuMubRtz_mN8n-iWEu/s400/hpfc+scaled+%2528en%2529.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">The average level of the price projection corresponds to the quotes of the forward product prices. In other words, I have just received the price forecast which satisfies the no-arbitrage condition, that is it represents the currently quoted prices of standard products on the forward market.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">In the end, I would like to note that the HPFC should be determined at least once a working day, mainly due to the volatility of the prices of the forward products.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">In case of any questions or remarks – please leave your comment or contact me.</span></div>
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ForecastPowerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15455748670417054077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7450671834108487206.post-37068879887788767462019-09-16T04:22:00.002-07:002019-09-16T04:25:36.714-07:00Po ile sprzedać energię firmie? - Struktura cen<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgV-RISiNTmi3shn3bdZqaI199RQVjsCqxxM1YC1qsExlUBsqaRROWPtKqsxeMKwWFqxoP1Gn2CDoyBQreGiWC9cOzdFGuuOJummR8ZTUVwopGWQMhblOzjmnBsSKZ-pqYTOhExgW2pJLMR/s1600/prices_3d+animated+%2528pl%2529.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="375" data-original-width="698" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgV-RISiNTmi3shn3bdZqaI199RQVjsCqxxM1YC1qsExlUBsqaRROWPtKqsxeMKwWFqxoP1Gn2CDoyBQreGiWC9cOzdFGuuOJummR8ZTUVwopGWQMhblOzjmnBsSKZ-pqYTOhExgW2pJLMR/s400/prices_3d+animated+%2528pl%2529.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><b>Godzinowa terminowa struktura cen energii (ang. HPFC = Hourly Price Forward Curve) jest wykorzystywana m.in. do wyznaczenia aktualnej wartości portfela energii. Jest konieczna również – o czym pisałem w <a href="https://forecastpower.blogspot.com/2019/08/po-ile-sprzedac-energie-firmie-1.html" target="_blank">poprzednim poście</a> – do wyceny profilu klienta. Jak więc powstaje HPFC? O jednej z metod jej wyznaczania – metodzie algebraicznej – jest ten artykuł.</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Czym jest HPFC? Jest to uporządkowany w pewnym przedziale dat godzinowy szereg cen energii. Na przykład dla roku 2020 byłyby to 8784 wartości. HPFC najczęściej wyznacza się na podstawie cen godzinowych na rynku natychmiastowym (spot). W tym wypadku jest to prognoza cen, jakie spodziewamy się zaobserwować na tym rynku, wziąwszy pod uwagę zarówno przeszłe wartości godzinowych cen spot, jak i aktualne ceny produktów terminowych. Taka prognoza (lub projekcja) ma jednocześnie uwzględniać:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">1) obserwowane cykle, tj. cykl roczny, tygodniowy i dobowy,</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">2) kalendarz, tj. przeciętnie niższe ceny dla świąt państwowych i dni z nimi sąsiadujących,</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">3) bieżący poziom cen produktów terminowych (brak arbitrażu),</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">4) zmiany w strukturze wynikające z rosnącego udziału generacji z odnawialnych źródeł energii.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Dwa pierwsze punkty oraz ostatni dotyczą kształtu krzywej cen, trzeci dotyczy spodziewanego poziomu cen tej projekcji. W tym artykule skupię się na trzech pierwszych punktach.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Kształt krzywej</span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Jak wyznaczyć godzinową terminową strukturę cen, by odzwierciedlała cykle i kalendarz świąt? Potrzebujemy do tego historycznych godzinowych cen spot. Im dłuższy ma być okres, na który prognozujemy, tym dłuższy powinien być szereg historycznych cen. Na ogół sprawdza się następująca reguła kciuka, że okres danych historycznych powinien być co najmniej dwa razy dłuższy od okresu prognozy. Załóżmy, że chcemy stworzyć projekcję cen na lata 2020-2021. Historyczne dane godzinowe mogą wtedy być wzięte np. z lat 2015-2019.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><b>Uśrednianie po latach</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Wykres poniżej przedstawia w uproszczeniu zaobserwowane ceny w postaci trójwymiarowej macierzy dla lat 2015-2019, dla 52 kolejnych tygodni roku i 9 typów dni (Mo – poniedziałek, Tu-Th – „wtorko-czwartek”, tj. albo wtorek, albo środa, albo czwartek, Fr – piątek, Sa – sobota, Su – niedziela, Ho – święto państwowe, Be – dzień przed świętem państwowym, Af – dzień po święcie państwowym, Br – dzień pomostowy, tj. dzień albo pomiędzy świętami, np. w Polsce 2. maja, albo dzień pomiędzy świętem a sobotą lub niedzielą, np. w Polsce piątek po Bożym Ciele). Możliwe są oczywiście inne podziały na typy dni. Wymiar godzin jest „zwinięty”, tzn. każdy punkt tej trójwymiarowej przestrzeni mieści w sobie 24 wartości cen odpowiadające 24 godzinom doby. Dla uproszczenia, w przypadku wiosennej zmiany czasu wartość dla brakującej godziny można zastąpić średnią z wartości sprzed i po zmianie czasu, zaś w przypadku jesiennej zmiany czasu wartość z dodatkowej godziny można uśrednić z wartością z godziny tuż przed zmianą czasu.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNXVrn1ffugGNysdKuTr7ArhnDaThv05dkY9j8CXfKbIq6-Ef_BPoav5cSBp4n-dPtVz0bgJ6KtzQgMHZjRcoD28_Xmas31ss9M3Q7_KQNnNIjEbQ_KrMnOCTejs4PiP8nuzZ1IInLm2pt/s1600/prices_3d+%2528pl%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="375" data-original-width="698" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNXVrn1ffugGNysdKuTr7ArhnDaThv05dkY9j8CXfKbIq6-Ef_BPoav5cSBp4n-dPtVz0bgJ6KtzQgMHZjRcoD28_Xmas31ss9M3Q7_KQNnNIjEbQ_KrMnOCTejs4PiP8nuzZ1IInLm2pt/s400/prices_3d+%2528pl%2529.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Na wykresie dla prostoty zaznaczyłem jedynie pięć punktów w postaci kul – każda z nich ma odzwierciedlać wagę, jaką przypisuję obserwacji cen w kolejnych latach. Tak więc, im starsza obserwacja, tym mniejszą ma ona wagę. W sumie wszystkich punktów powinno być 2 340 = 5 lat x 52 tygodnie x 9 typów dni. Tak jednak nie będzie, tzn. nie wszystkie miejsca (punkty) w macierzy będą wypełnione ze względu na ruchome święta, które mogą przypadać w różnych tygodniach roku. Dotyczy to zresztą nie tylko samych świąt, ale także dni z nimi graniczących. Zamiast podziału na 52 tygodnie można użyć podziału na 12 miesięcy, ale i to nie rozwiąże problemu – np. święta wielkanocne mogą przypadać i w marcu, i w kwietniu. Jak sobie z tym poradzić – opisałem w kolejnej sekcji. Przy granulacji tygodniowej sporadycznie występujący 53. tydzień warto dołączyć albo do 1., albo do 52. tygodnia ze względu na zbyt małą liczbę obserwacji.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Zasadniczo, algorytm wyznaczania struktury cen na kolejne lata (na razie bez dostosowania jej poziomu) sprowadza się do przepisania uśrednionych wartości z lat poprzednich dla danego tygodnia roku (ew. miesiąca) i typu dnia. Zauważmy, że przy generowaniu projekcji na przyszłe lata nie potrzebujemy już wymiaru lat. Gdy będziemy chcieli wyznaczyć ceny dobowe np. dla 1 stycznia 2020 r., będziemy potrzebować jedynie uśrednionych cen dla święta (Ho) przypadającego w pierwszym tygodniu (ew. miesiącu) roku. Dlatego trójwymiarową macierz można „spłaszczyć”, pozostawiając jedynie dwa wymiary, tj. wymiar tygodni (ew. miesięcy) oraz wymiar typów dni. Przy uśrednianiu po latach trzeba pamiętać o wagach, które przypisujemy kolejnym latom.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><b>Uśrednianie po tygodniach</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">W wyniku „spłaszczania” opisanego w poprzedniej sekcji otrzymamy dwuwymiarową macierz o 468 elementach = 52 tygodnie x 9 typów dni. Zasadniczo, każdy element powinien zawierać 24 wartości, a każda z nich będzie uśredniona po latach i po typie dnia (np. dla ‘wtorko-czwartków’ w tygodniu bez świąt spodziewamy się 3 dni, a np. w Polsce, w pierwszym tygodniu roku mogą wystąpić dwa święta – Nowy Rok i Objawienie Pańskie).</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi05EAflWTqDQpTGI5-1lPcsVqbFecEEfuGtwKiAicBJiGEcsr-nk6bcYd4PNgQAXXCFIC-0rxSRjQnu7vl_ORk7Tp75HhtosBJnDNOMZSGjVLlRvN0FpQ_u-5_b-u4iHMzF-hCs4JnTEsI/s1600/prices_2d+%2528pl%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="375" data-original-width="698" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi05EAflWTqDQpTGI5-1lPcsVqbFecEEfuGtwKiAicBJiGEcsr-nk6bcYd4PNgQAXXCFIC-0rxSRjQnu7vl_ORk7Tp75HhtosBJnDNOMZSGjVLlRvN0FpQ_u-5_b-u4iHMzF-hCs4JnTEsI/s400/prices_2d+%2528pl%2529.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Nie wszystkie 468 punkty będą więc wypełnione danymi. Dodatkowo, niektóre z nich mogą zawierać anomalie (nietypowe obserwacje), a które prawdopodobnie nie powtórzą się w tym samym tygodniu i dla tego samego typu dnia w przyszłości. Z pomocą przychodzi nam ruchome uśrednianie względem sąsiadującym tygodni (ew. miesięcy). Każdy punkt, tj. każdy zestaw 24 wartości może być uśredniony przy użyciu stosownych wag tygodniowych lub miesięcznych z sąsiadujących punktów. Naturalne wydaje się przypisanie największej wagi węzłowi centralnemu i odpowiednio mniejszych węzłom sąsiadującym. Na wykresie powyżej zaznaczyłem je tylko dla wybranego elementu, tj. dla typu dni „święto” przypadającego w 30. tygodniu roku. Wartości dla 30. tygodnia są wynikiem uśredniania wartości od 27 do 33 tygodnia roku. Średnice punktów odzwierciedlają wielkość wag przypisanych do odpowiednich tygodni.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Na brzegach obszaru, tj. w okolicach 1. i 52. tygodnia roku można użyć elementów odpowiednio z poprzedniego lub z kolejnego roku (zszycie obszaru). Jeśli wyżej opisany algorytm uśredniający nie sprawi, by wszystkie elementy macierzy zostały uzupełnione, brakujące dane można estymować na podstawie innych typów dni, np. dla świąt można przyjąć wartości z niedziel, a dla dni graniczących ze świętami – wartości z typowych dni niebędącymi ani sobotą, ani niedzielą. Ten sam sposób postępowania można zastosować także w przypadku, gdy zażądamy, by dany element zawierał uśrednione dane z minimalnie, powiedzmy, trzech dni (obserwacji), i gdy jednocześnie ten warunek nie będzie spełniony. Innymi słowy możemy uznać, że trzy obserwacje to za mało, by stanowiły podstawę do utworzenia prognozy. Wtedy możemy zastąpić brakujące dane z takiego punktu, który ma najbardziej zbliżoną charakterystykę.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">W wyniku powyższych operacji otrzymamy „stempel”, który będziemy przykładać do każdego dnia okresu prognozowanego. Po określeniu dla takiego dnia jego typu oraz numeru tygodnia roku (ew. miesiąca roku), będziemy w stanie podać dla niego 24 wartości uśrednione po kolejnych latach i typach dni.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Rysunek poniżej przedstawia projekcję cen na lata 2020 i 2021, jeszcze bez sprowadzenia ich do poziomu cen produktów terminowych aktualnie obserwowanych na rynku. Warto na nim zauważyć cykl roczny, tj. podobieństwo kształtu krzywej w roku 2020 do kształtu w roku 2021.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUpfYvjcptyEmHquWaRjQgx65XmnTvvrRytRR53buqEu5Q61W-XZqd-Q9sYE_8z-nz3yoKgoY_HXsQ_H87QTmVpa4rw17mDpbrvaMQSnhBCNKQKAoTnqC0IHtmFW3tzdbLfzwUqL9MkVYl/s1600/cycle+year+%2528pl%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="375" data-original-width="698" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUpfYvjcptyEmHquWaRjQgx65XmnTvvrRytRR53buqEu5Q61W-XZqd-Q9sYE_8z-nz3yoKgoY_HXsQ_H87QTmVpa4rw17mDpbrvaMQSnhBCNKQKAoTnqC0IHtmFW3tzdbLfzwUqL9MkVYl/s400/cycle+year+%2528pl%2529.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Przy odpowiednim przeskalowaniu wykresu (2. i 3. tydzień 2020 r.) dostrzec można także cykl tygodniowy. Dodatkowo, 6. stycznia 2020 r. (święto przypadające w poniedziałek) ma znacząco niższy poziom ceny od poziomu ceny z kolejnego poniedziałku z 13. stycznia 2020 r.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPqHQHi_3uwbCykKXJQtRY4dsVAzhclznj4ZtjYBaYt5CRYyZxZl6SBo-5RMapydpKeZdxIqklbTMxS5tTJolcSoCMnpB1Z_ZhkZLPKj0xsT_BRxgPwKA7omcq1Hbcw-m216J5JU-y68Hq/s1600/cycle+week+%2528pl%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="375" data-original-width="698" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPqHQHi_3uwbCykKXJQtRY4dsVAzhclznj4ZtjYBaYt5CRYyZxZl6SBo-5RMapydpKeZdxIqklbTMxS5tTJolcSoCMnpB1Z_ZhkZLPKj0xsT_BRxgPwKA7omcq1Hbcw-m216J5JU-y68Hq/s400/cycle+week+%2528pl%2529.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Cykl dobowy przedstawiłem dla przykładu dla dwóch dni 13. i 14 stycznia 2020 r.:</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjG3g6U1NzIun1-zYiZlQ53E_abeCQ599257PLhA8ycwOZ86GUn06xUK8ZTaPEmel7xrnmYKvjHFiAm6F5B_rv1caEV7Y2Vn1RoBHHhfti5S5lokiZK3ghtK3i7Y6IY_Aq3aBa4x2jhktLd/s1600/cycle+day+%2528pl%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="375" data-original-width="698" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjG3g6U1NzIun1-zYiZlQ53E_abeCQ599257PLhA8ycwOZ86GUn06xUK8ZTaPEmel7xrnmYKvjHFiAm6F5B_rv1caEV7Y2Vn1RoBHHhfti5S5lokiZK3ghtK3i7Y6IY_Aq3aBa4x2jhktLd/s400/cycle+day+%2528pl%2529.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Poziom struktury cen</span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Projekcja struktury cen obliczona w sposób opisany powyżej nie będzie odzwierciedlać poziomów cen produktów terminowych, co przedstawiłem schematycznie na wykresie poniżej (poziom projekcji cen jest za niski w związku z zaobserwowanym wzrostem cen na przestrzeni bieżącego roku):</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTy5f9fG_EjYGHCKoFzNrpu-wWwYzx7dk73TG6uNr-NkwHMjUnBTK4MlIBT_AlMS0G5Bct07KY_y3Y9GKOsrrrYs6V_cVCx7yh-fpfD61xb6Oa3LCAx25jHwbAniV34rCKGiTupXcAytgJ/s1600/hpfc+unscaled+%2528pl%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="375" data-original-width="698" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTy5f9fG_EjYGHCKoFzNrpu-wWwYzx7dk73TG6uNr-NkwHMjUnBTK4MlIBT_AlMS0G5Bct07KY_y3Y9GKOsrrrYs6V_cVCx7yh-fpfD61xb6Oa3LCAx25jHwbAniV34rCKGiTupXcAytgJ/s400/hpfc+unscaled+%2528pl%2529.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Linie pomarańczowe to poziomy cen wynikające z kwotowań produktów terminowych w połowie września 2019 r. W tym czasie na rynku polskim na dostawę w latach 2020-2021 dostępne są kwotowania kontraktów z dostawą:</span></div>
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<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">w pierwszym kwartale 2020 roku,</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">w całym roku 2020,</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">w całym roku 2021.</span></li>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Dla uproszczenia na wykresie uwzględniłem tylko kwotowania pasma, a pominąłem kwotowania szczytu. Cena w kwartałach od drugiego do czwartego 2020 r. została obliczona tak, by razem z ceną w pierwszym kwartale była równa kwotowaniu dla całego roku 2020 po uśrednieniu po wszystkich godzinach dostawy. Oczywiście, to kolejne uproszczenie – warto wyznaczać ceny implikowane (sztuczne) produktów terminowych np. na podstawie uśrednionych obserwacji relacji cen produktów kwartalnych do cen produktów rocznych.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">W celu spełnienia warunku na brak arbitrażu, wszystkie wartości projekcji cen (niebieska linia) należy sprowadzić do takiego poziomu, by ich średnie w odpowiednich okresach dostawy odpowiadały aktualnym poziomom cen produktów terminowych (pomarańczowe linie). Można to zrobić dwiema metodami: multiplikatywną lub addytywną. Pierwsza sprowadza się do przemnożenia – w każdym okresie obowiązywania ceny, której wymagamy – każdej wartości ceny przez pewną liczbę tak, aby osiągnąć wymagany poziom ceny. Metoda addytywna zaś – zamiast na przemnożeniu przez pewną liczbę – polega na dodaniu pewnej liczby do każdej ceny. I jedna, i druga metoda ma swoje wady i zalety, których nie będę tu opisywał.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Na poniższym rysunku przedstawiłem projekcję ceny sprowadzoną do poziomu cen produktów terminowych metodą multiplikatywną.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjg9hkmzsQtpFb0RQKOs63fKKmrM8E5EL6GEwq7ulPiSTcWcoQcfSr-qCclwUJee1nMwgokRMkLr76-exZImesOisaCkA7TyAmUelT_trfUMoa64OwbU2_spgz920SahcDNhNmsDZxfD4XQ/s1600/hpfc+scaled+%2528pl%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="375" data-original-width="698" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjg9hkmzsQtpFb0RQKOs63fKKmrM8E5EL6GEwq7ulPiSTcWcoQcfSr-qCclwUJee1nMwgokRMkLr76-exZImesOisaCkA7TyAmUelT_trfUMoa64OwbU2_spgz920SahcDNhNmsDZxfD4XQ/s400/hpfc+scaled+%2528pl%2529.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Średni poziom projekcji cen odpowiada na nim poziomom wynikającym z cen produktów terminowych. Tym samym otrzymałem prognozę cen, która spełnia warunek na brak arbitrażu, tj. odpowiada aktualnie kwotowanym na rynku kontraktom na rynku terminowym.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Na koniec dodam, że HPFC powinno się wyznaczać co najmniej raz w ciągu dnia roboczego, głównie ze względu na zmienność cen produktów terminowych.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">W przypadku pytań i uwag – zapraszam do pozostawienia komentarzy i do kontaktu.</span></div>
ForecastPowerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15455748670417054077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7450671834108487206.post-85036881228870999592019-08-29T06:48:00.002-07:002019-08-29T06:48:44.867-07:00dependence-of-price-on-power-surplusForecastPowerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15455748670417054077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7450671834108487206.post-12734765161162072152019-08-29T06:47:00.002-07:002019-09-02T13:12:40.572-07:00Jak ceny na RB i RDB zależą od dostępnej nadwyżki mocy?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCTg289cZPZI9Dzs-qmHmsltLrcW3hCWq1noHmFTX19NxU0sKyvQOwRnPKFkDMJhh0DVcR_KqnsrLxZJmz7MK2gumH_JBWW1sB9II2uxIlpzUoGuO0BdX_IMkUp1tH8M56QpnFmjwuw09o/s1600/Wykres.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="375" data-original-width="698" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCTg289cZPZI9Dzs-qmHmsltLrcW3hCWq1noHmFTX19NxU0sKyvQOwRnPKFkDMJhh0DVcR_KqnsrLxZJmz7MK2gumH_JBWW1sB9II2uxIlpzUoGuO0BdX_IMkUp1tH8M56QpnFmjwuw09o/s400/Wykres.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><b>Ceny energii elektrycznej na Rynku Bilansującym (RB) i Rynku Dnia Bieżącego (RDB) zależą od relacji dostępnej podaży i aktualnego popytu na energię elektryczną. Którą jednak wielkość można uznać za syntetyczny wyznacznik tych cen? Jak układa się zależność pomiędzy tym wyznacznikiem a cenami?</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Ceny na RB i RDB</span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Analizowane ceny na RDB to archiwalne ceny giełdowe opublikowane przez TGE SA. Dotyczą one jedynie godzin od 12 do 24 (końce przedziałów godzinowych), gdyż w badanym okresie, tj. od października 2016 do kwietnia 2017, była tylko jedna przedpołudniowa godzina (2016-11-14 06:00-07:00), dla której zarejestrowano transakcję na RDB. Łącznie wszystkich godzin, dla których zaobserwowano transakcje w tym okresie, było 980, co stanowi ok. 19% wszystkich godzin tego okresu.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Ceny na RB to ceny rozliczeniowe pochodzące z dobowych raportów z funkcjonowania rynku bilansującego, regularnie publikowanych przez PSE SA.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Wyznacznik cen</span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Jaką jednak wielkość należy wybrać na wyznacznik cen? Odpowiedzi będzie zapewne tyle, ilu jest traderów i analityków rynku energii. Ja, dla prostoty analizy, wybrałem jedną, ogólnie dostępną wielkość, odzwierciedlającą bieżącą relację popytu i podaży, i którą można wyznaczyć na podstawie danych publikowanych przez PSE SA – w bieżącym planie koordynacyjnym dobowym (BPKD) i raporcie dobowym z pracy krajowego systemu elektroenergetycznego (KSE). Jest to wielkość, którą można traktować jako dostępną nadwyżkę popytu nad podażą, albo jako potencjał zdolności wytwórczych JWCD (jednostek wytwórczych centralnie dysponowanych), po odjęciu generacji JWCD oraz wymaganej rezerwy ponad zapotrzebowanie w KSE:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><b>Nadwyżka [GW] = </b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Suma zdolności wytwórczych JWCD [GW] </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">– Średnia godzinowa moc generacji JWCD [GWh/h] </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">- Rezerwa ponad zapotrzebowanie [GW]</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Warto zauważyć, że jest to wielkość, na którą Operator Systemu Przesyłowego (OSP) ma bezpośredni i niemal natychmiastowy wpływ. Dlatego też nie ma w niej wielkości generacji z jednostek nie będącymi jednostkami wytwórczymi centralnie dysponowanymi (nJWCD), których bezwładność, tj. czas reakcji na dyspozycję, jest znacznie większa.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Warto także zwrócić uwagę na fakt, że rezerwa ponad zapotrzebowanie (ostatni odjemnik w powyższej definicji) zawiera w sobie element popytu, gdyż jej wysokość jest wyznaczana w zależności od bieżącego zapotrzebowania na moc w KSE.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Wielkość samej nadwyżki jest wyznaczana nieco inaczej dla RB i RDB, a ma to swoją przyczynę w dostępności danych:</span></div>
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<li style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">dla RB suma zdolności wytwórczych JWCD i rezerwa ponad zapotrzebowanie brane są z ostatniego BPKD przed godziną dostawy, zaś średnia godzinowa moc generacji JWCD to rzeczywista zmierzona wartość pobrana z raportu dobowego o pracy KSE;</span></li>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">dla RDB wszystkie wartości składowe pochodzą z ostatniego BPKD opublikowanego przed zamknięciem bramki na handel energią dla danej godziny dostawy – tj. dla godzin od 12 do 18 na 2,5 godz. przed dostawą, a dla godzin od 19 do 24 – do godz. 15:30 w dniu dostawy – zgodnie z harmonogramem sesji na RDB.</span></li>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Taka konstrukcja nadwyżki mocy zapewnia, że moment ustalenia ceny odpowiada aktualnie dostępnym informacjom na rynku.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Co jest na wykresach?</span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Każdy niebieski punkt odpowiada cenie za energię elektryczną [PLN/MWh] dla ustalonej godziny dostawy w zależności od wyznaczonej dla tej godziny nadwyżki [GW], obliczonej według podanego wyżej wzoru.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Pomarańczowymi rombami oznaczono punkty „niezdominowane”, tj. te, dla których nie ma takiego punktu, w którym zarówno cena jak i nadwyżka jest większa od ceny i nadwyżki określonych w takich punktach. Punkty niezdominowane ograniczają zatem od góry obszar cen zaobserwowanych w badanym okresie.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Poziomymi pomarańczowymi liniami zaznaczono minimalne i maksymalne ceny systemowe, tj. odpowiednio 70 i 1 500 PLN/MWh.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Dla nadwyżek od ok. 3 do 12 GW, przy założeniu liniowej zależności ceny od nadwyżki mocy i niezerowym wyrazie wolnym, mamy:</span></div>
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<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">dla RB spadek średnio o 9,00 (0,38) PLN/MWh/GW (współczynnik determinacji wynosi 0,17),</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">dla RDB spadek średnio o 11,23 (1,08) PLN/MWh/GW (współczynnik determinacji wynosi 0,24),</span></li>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">co można interpretować w następujący sposób: z każdym kolejnym gigawatem nadwyżki, cena za jedną megawatogodzinę spada na rynku bilansującym i rynku dnia bieżącego odpowiednio o ok. 9 i 11 złotych. Jest to obserwacja zgodna z intuicją – im więcej dostępnej mocy, tym niższa cena na rynku.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Ceny dla nadwyżek od 0 do 3 GW nie spadają już bynajmniej w tempie liniowym, choć większa część punktów w tym przedziale znajduje się na lewym przedłużeniu prostej wyznaczonej przez punkty dla nadwyżki z zakresu powyżej 3 GW. Głównym powodem tej nieliniowości są różne koszty krańcowe produkcji energii dla różnych bloków, którymi dysponuje OSP.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Gdy przyjrzeć się punktom obrazującym ceny na RB w zależności od nadwyżki, ale tylko w zakresie od 70 do 270 PLN/MWh (które stanowią aż 98% wszystkich obserwacji), można zauważyć, że układają się one w poziome pasma, odzwierciedlające właśnie koszty krańcowe produkcji energii dla dostępnych bloków:</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjz-I_q-TpG0b4rxWJdzhyphenhyphenl2w_EtZKvKp1OxmTr-AesWq19qCZUOGmHCMY5zXhT4nYBzS3wrpxSGI5k9AMVXUEYIzgAYnNGzBhSUD2CEHKL-TA4RKlK_Rl3GoPPCZkpPrDjLeAF8cpIswZe/s1600/Pasma1.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="615" data-original-width="637" height="385" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjz-I_q-TpG0b4rxWJdzhyphenhyphenl2w_EtZKvKp1OxmTr-AesWq19qCZUOGmHCMY5zXhT4nYBzS3wrpxSGI5k9AMVXUEYIzgAYnNGzBhSUD2CEHKL-TA4RKlK_Rl3GoPPCZkpPrDjLeAF8cpIswZe/s400/Pasma1.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Najlepiej widoczne pasma to np. 72, 85, 100 czy 107 PLN/MWh. Częstość występowania cen RB dla zakresu od 70 do 270 PLN/MWh przedstawiona jest na wykresie poniżej. Bardzo dobrze potwierdza on istnienie większości pasm cenowych z wykresu powyżej. Są jednak i takie pasma – np. 85, 170 i 180 PLN/MWh – których nie można dostrzec na wykresie częstości, a które dość jednoznacznie separują się na wykresie cen wykreślonych względem nadwyżki mocy:</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzSP-wiQAtrNevlwgN9t1GSiSCzUCAH1jG0UIqJEbxCvVv8_cDtTjli95og6JuZnwdQrvYFZq8p1S6tmhKobxBmZABOgzxNcDRn3_QEM1xaTCMeP9zQ7kROjIhd7JzDOSiwuGBdqG4FpBL/s1600/Pasma2.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="599" data-original-width="693" height="345" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzSP-wiQAtrNevlwgN9t1GSiSCzUCAH1jG0UIqJEbxCvVv8_cDtTjli95og6JuZnwdQrvYFZq8p1S6tmhKobxBmZABOgzxNcDRn3_QEM1xaTCMeP9zQ7kROjIhd7JzDOSiwuGBdqG4FpBL/s400/Pasma2.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Wskazuje to dość jednoznacznie na ograniczenia bieżącej, jednowymiarowej analizy, którą w kolejnym kroku należałoby rozbudować o zbadanie zależności cen na RB i RDB od kosztów krańcowych produkcji energii dla bloków energetycznych dostępnych na każdą godzinę dostawy.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Mam nadzieję, że powyższy temat jest na tyle inspirujący, by skłonić niektórych czytelników do prowadzenia własnych poszukiwań. W przypadku pytań lub sugestii – serdecznie zapraszam do kontaktu.</span></div>
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<br />ForecastPowerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15455748670417054077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7450671834108487206.post-47315325452704430622019-08-29T06:45:00.002-07:002019-08-29T06:45:48.766-07:00how-accurate-are-plansForecastPowerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15455748670417054077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7450671834108487206.post-47221867233888762532019-08-29T06:44:00.003-07:002019-08-29T06:44:25.582-07:00power-plants-remit-publication-hoursForecastPowerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15455748670417054077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7450671834108487206.post-65511428991077139532019-08-29T06:43:00.002-07:002019-08-29T06:43:47.701-07:00pse-plans-publication-hoursForecastPowerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15455748670417054077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7450671834108487206.post-87406209472432239562019-08-29T06:34:00.002-07:002019-09-02T13:13:05.879-07:00Jak dokładne są WPKD, PKD i BPKD?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhq7GVlhsOwvALjNUSQYP8suU0L90niqZk0JQljt79L7X0xUK3kVJNsrenlD8anzVHO7XGm4h3WmaarRbah3jqU9JhwXS9ShlgsrdV8RxgtzqrNhiVtSz2wTk5t5RUTDjhZMhtZH05AQxPA/s1600/Wykres1.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="376" data-original-width="698" height="215" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhq7GVlhsOwvALjNUSQYP8suU0L90niqZk0JQljt79L7X0xUK3kVJNsrenlD8anzVHO7XGm4h3WmaarRbah3jqU9JhwXS9ShlgsrdV8RxgtzqrNhiVtSz2wTk5t5RUTDjhZMhtZH05AQxPA/s400/Wykres1.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEju9CespjsHtVzDYVQaRd6MjxB_oOLQYhSaqfFyomAxAK6IDR1q1erpdLYsL7n9p-eXQvsbhIPTxnBc_f0UFX76BmP0oongYIanbzdXsvg4cVRoK4sFltQq0E-jD2NwPoPcydX9v52jGvLi/s1600/Wykres2.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="376" data-original-width="698" height="215" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEju9CespjsHtVzDYVQaRd6MjxB_oOLQYhSaqfFyomAxAK6IDR1q1erpdLYsL7n9p-eXQvsbhIPTxnBc_f0UFX76BmP0oongYIanbzdXsvg4cVRoK4sFltQq0E-jD2NwPoPcydX9v52jGvLi/s400/Wykres2.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><b>Operator Sieci Przesyłowej w Polsce (PSE SA) na bieżąco publikuje prognozy popytu i podaży na energię elektryczną. Jak zmienia się dokładność tych prognoz w miarę zbliżania się godzin dostawy energii? Czy prognozy te mogą być systematycznie obciążone? Jaka jest precyzja prognoz podaży energii w podziale na rodzaje źródeł?</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Wstępny Plan Koordynacyjny Dobowy (WPKD), Plan Koordynacyjny Dobowy (PKD) i Bieżący Plan Koordynacyjny Dobowy (BPKD) zawierają podstawowe wielkości składające się na spodziewany poziom popytu i podaży energii elektrycznej w kolejnych godzinach doby. Wszystkie plany zawierają następujące parametry:</span></div>
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<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">krajowe zapotrzebowanie na moc [MW], czyli prognozę popytu na energię elektryczną w krajowym systemie elektroenergetycznym (KSE),</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">generację [MWh] w podziale na 1) generację z JWCD (jednostek wytwórczych centralnie dysponowanych), 2) generację nJWCD (jednostek wytwórczych nie będących jednostkami centralnie dysponowanymi) oraz 3) generację źródeł wiatrowych,</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">sumy zdolności wytwórczych [MW] dla JWCD oraz dla nJWCD,</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">rezerwy ponad i poniżej zapotrzebowania [MW].</span></li>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">WPKD i PKD publikowane są raz na dobę, pierwszy z nich średnio ok. godz. 14:50 dla doby d+2, drugi ok. godz. 15:20 dla doby d+1, natomiast BPKD publikowany jest w miarę potrzeby, średnio ok. 50 razy na dobę i dotyczyć może zarówno doby bieżącej (d+0), jak i kolejnej (d+1), od ok. godz. 15:00-16:00 począwszy.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Na wykresach przedstawiono dwie miary:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">1. <b>MAPE</b> (ang. Mean Absolute Percentage Error), tj. <b>średni absolutny błąd procentowy</b>, obliczany jako średnia arytmetyczna (<…>) bezwzględnych wartości ilorazów (|…|): różnicy pomiędzy wartością prognozowaną (F) a wartością odniesienia (A) (licznik) i wartością odniesienia (mianownik) (A):</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">MAPE = <|(F-A)/A|></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">2. <b>ME</b> (ang. Mean Error), tj. <b>średni błąd</b>, wyrażony w [MW] lub w [MWh], obliczany jako średnia arytmetyczna (<…>) różnic pomiędzy wartością prognozowaną (F) a wartością odniesienia (A):</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">ME = <(F-A)></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">MAPE jest niemianowaną miarą dokładności, więc posiada m.in. tę zaletę, że można ją porównać dla różnych parametrów, bez względu na ich rząd wielkości. ME nie ma tej własności, natomiast umożliwia stwierdzenie, czy prognozy są średnio obciążone (asymetryczne), tj. przeszacowane lub niedoszacowane względem wartości odniesienia.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Oba rodzaje błędów wykreślono na powyższych wykresach dla WPKD, PKD i BPKD w zależności od liczby godzin pomiędzy godziną publikacji a godziną dostawy.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Dla generacji i dla krajowego zapotrzebowania na moc wartością odniesienia jest wartość zmierzona i podana w raporcie dobowym; dla pozostałych parametrów za wartość odniesienia przyjęto ostatnią prognozowaną wartość z planu BPKD obowiązującą przed dostawą energii. Stąd dla rezerw mocy oraz dla sum zdolności wytwórczych ostatnie punkty przedstawione na wykresach to dwie godziny przed dostawą.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Wszystkie raporty pochodzą z okresu obserwacji od 1 października 2016 r. do 28 lutego 2017 r.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Spostrzeżenia</span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><b>Krajowe zapotrzebowanie na moc (popyt)</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Popyt na energię elektryczną w dość niewielkim stopniu zależy od czynników losowych. Jest on w przeważającej mierze pochodną warunków pogodowych (temperatura odczuwalna, zachmurzenie) – dość dobrze znanych na 1-2 dni przed dostawą – oraz kalendarza (cykl dobowy i tygodniowy, święta narodowe, okresy nauki szkolnej). Czynniki koniunkturalne nie są zauważalne przy tak krótkim okresie obserwacji. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Największą nieprzewidywalność prognoz mogą generować awarie w instalacjach u wielkich odbiorców i nietypowe wydarzenia, takie jak mecze rozgrywane w trakcie Euro 2012.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Dokładność prognoz popytu może zostać zmniejszona przez wprowadzany właśnie nowy model zarządzania stroną popytową (DSR – ang. Demand-Side Response). Póki co mamy jednak:</span></div>
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<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">dużą precyzję prognozy, tj. niskie wartości MAPE: 1,6% (WPKD), 1,2% (PKD-BPKD od 30h do 5h przed dostawą), ok. 1% (BPKD od 4h do 1h przed dostawą);</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">nieznaczne przeszacowanie prognozy względem wykonania: wartości ME średnio na poziomie +50 MW.</span></li>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><b>Generacja (podaż)</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Podaż na energię elektryczną jest trudniej przewidzieć niż popyt na nią, stąd i precyzja prognoz generacji jest znacznie mniejsza.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Konwencjonalne instalacje wytwórcze są o wiele bardziej skoncentrowane od instalacji odbiorczych. Jeśli więc awarii ulegnie któryś z bloków elektrowni, spadek sumy zdolności wytwórczych, a co za tym idzie także spadek spodziewanej generacji, będzie znaczący.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Przewidywana generacja źródeł wiatrowych zależy zaś przede wszystkim od prognozy prędkości wiatru, której dokładność przy obecnie stosowanych modelach numerycznych, nie jest zbyt wysoka i spada dramatycznie dla horyzontu prognozy przekraczającego 2-3 dni. Tak więc:</span></div>
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<li style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">MAPE dla JWCD i nJWCD waha się w przedziale od 8% do 2% na godzinę przed dostawą; dla źródeł wiatrowych jest o wiele wyższy – w WPKD wynosi 31% i spada w przybliżeniu liniowo do poziomu 7% na godzinę przed dostawą;</span></li>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">ME dla JWCD jest niedoszacowany średnio o −40 MW (jego przebieg jest nieliniowy), dla nJWCD jest także niedoszacowany i waha się od ok. −300 MW do +2 MW na godzinę przed dostawą; dla źródeł wiatrowych ME jest również niedoszacowany (średnio o −180 MW) i osiąga minimalnie wartość −345 MW.</span></li>
</ul>
ForecastPowerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15455748670417054077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7450671834108487206.post-67887277799686881482019-08-29T06:32:00.002-07:002019-09-02T13:13:38.022-07:00REMITy elektrowni - jakie godziny publikacji?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2m1oX5zOpZOW4nMFrQ68ip_xfU3L7wSEAqnqFUem2hzrCUJzu8-7OUZy5nIvpm9hB9xBgB8vR5bPwSHikEuweO0iHyo-D9JJK66N9rB7ALw8jumpp4p0NIUnoYuTZIykRxFVVWMJX0WYo/s1600/Wykres.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="376" data-original-width="698" height="215" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2m1oX5zOpZOW4nMFrQ68ip_xfU3L7wSEAqnqFUem2hzrCUJzu8-7OUZy5nIvpm9hB9xBgB8vR5bPwSHikEuweO0iHyo-D9JJK66N9rB7ALw8jumpp4p0NIUnoYuTZIykRxFVVWMJX0WYo/s400/Wykres.PNG" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><b>Czy regularnie sprawdzasz raporty REMIT na stronach elektrowni? Chcesz wiedzieć, w jakich godzinach doby możesz spodziewać się ich utworzenia? Jeśli tak, powyższe wykresy i płynące z nich spostrzeżenia pomogą Ci w Twojej pracy.</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Raporty REMIT publikowane przez wytwórców energii zawierają cenne dane na temat dostępności jednostek wytwórczych. Innymi słowy, odzwierciedlają one dostępny wolumen podaży energii elektrycznej w systemie. Są to informacje „z pierwszej ręki”, więc mają kluczowy wpływ na poziom cen energii, szczególnie na rynku dnia następnego, bieżącym i bilansującym.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Źródła danych</span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Powyższe wykresy zawierają informacje na temat czasów publikacji raportów REMIT dla ośmiu wybranych przedsiębiorstw energetycznych wytwarzających energię elektryczną na terenie Polski, publikujących dane o niedostępności jednostek wytwórczych bezpośrednio na swoich stronach internetowych. Za moment publikacji przyjęto czas podany przez dostawcę danych, oznaczający czas wygenerowania danego raportu o niedostępności.</span></div>
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<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Enea Wytwarzanie sp z o o: 2 562 publikacje od 2015-10-08 do 2017-02-10 (https://www.enea.pl/pl/grupaenea/o-grupie/spolki-grupy-enea/wytwarzanie/remit) </span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Energa Wytwarzanie S A: 1 614 publikacji od 2012-10-01 do 2017-02-10 (http://www.energaostroleka.pl/1558.xml)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Engie Energia Polska S A (d. GDF Suez): 800 publikacji od 2012-04-02 do 2017-02-04 (http://transparency.engie.com)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">PKN Orlen S A: 625 publikacji od 2016-08-23 do 2017-01-25 (http://remit.orlen.pl/)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">ZE PAK SA: 3 022 publikacje od 2012-02-09 do 2017-02-10 (http://zepak.com.pl/en/about-us/remit.html)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna S A: 7 149 publikacji od 2016-05-05 do 2017-02-10 (http://remit.gkpge.pl/#/all/events/energy)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">PGNiG Termika S A: 146 publikacji od 2016-06-03 do 2017-02-02 (http://www.termika.pgnig.pl/node/562)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Tauron Polska Energia S A: 3 969 publikacji od 2013-06-06 do 2017-02-10 (http://www.tauron.pl/tauron/o-tauronie/REMITi/Strony/start.aspx)</span></li>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; text-align: justify;">Co jest na wykresach?</span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Niebieskimi krzywymi przedstawiono poglądowo prawdopodobieństwa publikacji raportów REMIT w ciągu kolejnych godzin doby. Krzywe te, to w istocie łamane o szerokości binu (przedziału) równej jednej godzinie doby. Pionowymi pomarańczowymi liniami zaznaczono średnie czasy publikacji raportów.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Spostrzeżenia</span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Wykresy prawdopodobieństwa publikacji raportów REMIT są różne dla poszczególnych wytwórców. Dla jednych są one dość wyraźnie skupione wokół ustalonych godzin (Enea, Energa, PAK oraz częściowo GDF i PGE), dla innych nie sposób zaobserwować takiej prawidłowości (Orlen, PGNiG, Tauron). Miarą takiego skupienia może być np. rozstęp ćwiartkowy (IQR), definiowany jako różnica pomiędzy trzecim a pierwszym kwartylem, zawierający z definicji 50% obserwacji. I tak:</span></div>
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<li style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Enea ma bardzo skupione publikacje – dla niej IQR to przedział obejmujący zaledwie 8 minut pomiędzy 08:29 a 08:37, zaś pomiędzy 09:00 a 07:00 kolejnego dnia występuje tylko ok. 14% publikacji;</span></li>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Energa, podobnie jak Enea, także publikuje przestoje o ustalonej porze – dla niej IQR to 21 minut pomiędzy 07:07 a 07:28; pomiędzy 08:00 a 06:00 kolejnego dnia występuje tylko ok. 22% publikacji;</span></li>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">PAK także publikuje dość regularnie, jeśli chodzi o moment pojawienia się raportów w ciągu kolejnych godzin doby, jednak dla niego IQR to już 3 godz. 14 minut pomiędzy 06:23 a 09:37; najwięcej, tj. ok. 26% publikacji, przypada pomiędzy 07:00 a 08:00;</span></li>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">GDF ma niezbyt wyraźne maksimum prawdopodobieństwa publikacji pomiędzy 09:00 a 10:00 (ok. 13% publikacji); dla niego IQR to już 1/3 doby, tj. wynosi 8 godz. 9 minut pomiędzy 08:03 a 16:12;</span></li>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">PGE posiada dwa maksima publikacji, dlatego IQR nie jest tu adekwatną miarą skupienia; aż 24% publikacji przypada pomiędzy 00:00 a 01:00 (pierwsze wyraźne maksimum), zaś pomiędzy 09:00 a 10:00 (tj. w drugim niewyraźnym maksimum) przypada ok. 11% publikacji;</span></li>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Tauron publikuje dość jednorodnie w ciągu doby – pomiędzy 06:00 a 16:00 przypada ok. 89% obserwacji, bez jednego wyraźnego maksimum; IQR wynosi tu 4 godz. 43 minuty pomiędzy 08:09 a 12:52;</span></li>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Orlen i PGNiG nie mają jednego wyraźnego maksimum publikacji raportów, innymi słowy, istnieje dla nich dość stałe prawdopodobieństwo publikacji raportu w ciągu kolejnych godzin doby; być może w przypadku większej liczby obserwacji można by wysnuć dla nich bardziej precyzyjne wnioski.</span></li>
</ul>
ForecastPowerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15455748670417054077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7450671834108487206.post-36123097054225448372019-08-29T06:30:00.002-07:002019-09-02T13:16:39.876-07:00Plany PSE - godziny publikacji?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7VrAs_5bsSYLqhLpBafK9VlEwrmTOiEqhSwDVssImNxaxSHtYJutmEd3uI3aaejfwF35cOK3LPddq3xCt1rFl5eyF43WyvO6hUSbLHAqerhNahuqrScL6sMVUyUmryQy-8ByB93J1WUj3/s1600/Wykresy.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="376" data-original-width="698" height="215" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7VrAs_5bsSYLqhLpBafK9VlEwrmTOiEqhSwDVssImNxaxSHtYJutmEd3uI3aaejfwF35cOK3LPddq3xCt1rFl5eyF43WyvO6hUSbLHAqerhNahuqrScL6sMVUyUmryQy-8ByB93J1WUj3/s400/Wykresy.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><b>Korzystasz z planów KSE? Często odświeżasz stronę PSE w poszukiwaniu nowych danych? Jeśli tak, to powyższe wykresy ułatwią Ci zadanie!</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Polskie Sieci Elektroenergetyczne S.A. (PSE) publikują wiele dokumentów nt. pracy Krajowego Systemu Elektroenergetycznego (KSE) w Polsce. Te, tworzone w trybie dziennym, są generowane i dostarczane zwykle o ustalonych porach doby. Niestety, nie wiadomo dokładnie kiedy, bo ich czasy utworzenia i publikacji zmieniają się z dnia na dzień.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Powyższe wykresy obrazują czasy utworzenia czterech wybranych planów:</span></div>
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<li style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">BPKD (bieżącego planu koordynacyjnego dobowego) dotyczącego bieżącej i kolejnej doby handlowej (d+0 ÷ d+1), publikowanego średnio ok. 50 razy w ciągu całej doby,</span></li>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">PKD (planu koordynacyjnego dobowego) zawierającego informacje o przyszłej dobie handlowej (d+1), publikowanego raz na dobę,</span></li>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">WPKD (wstępnego planu koordynacyjnego dobowego) mieszczącego wielkości nt. następnej doby handlowej (d+2), publikowanego raz na dobę,</span></li>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">BTHD (bilansu techniczno-handlowego dobowego) odnoszącego się do okresu kolejnych siedmiu dób handlowych (d+3 ÷ d+10), publikowanego także raz na dobę.</span></li>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Niebieskie krzywe na wykresach przedstawiają prawdopodobieństwo wygenerowania planów w ustalonym czasie doby, a pionowe, kropkowane – oznaczają średnie z tych czasów. Czasy utworzenia zostały pobrane bezpośrednio z nazw plików i nie są równoważne z czasami publikacji planów na stronie www.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; text-align: justify;">Czasy rzeczywistej publikacji planów na stronie www – zaznaczone ciągłymi pionowymi liniami – są późniejsze od czasów generacji plików średnio o 10-11 minut. To właśnie je warto wziąć pod uwagę, gdy sprawdza się, czy dany plan został już zamieszczony na stronie www czy nie.</span></div>
ForecastPowerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15455748670417054077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7450671834108487206.post-85350480010259514482019-08-29T03:34:00.002-07:002019-09-19T00:54:30.703-07:00How to Quote Business for Electricity? - Introduction<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiUKyn6Dr1RmX1uoUyezs8Ly2C0hvxFrQ3V4l8dqjgzlICJ_An217vwk0bHhRN6WvGWnbjObMAZeXZxR2YhA4L2eSJ1wjqUJOuYI_ei2ETjUtz37ukkgzV61fJ7LrXDRbQFWUEsUUuB5bC/s1600/animated+%2528en%2529.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="375" data-original-width="698" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiUKyn6Dr1RmX1uoUyezs8Ly2C0hvxFrQ3V4l8dqjgzlICJ_An217vwk0bHhRN6WvGWnbjObMAZeXZxR2YhA4L2eSJ1wjqUJOuYI_ei2ETjUtz37ukkgzV61fJ7LrXDRbQFWUEsUUuB5bC/s400/animated+%2528en%2529.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 15.6933px;"><br /></span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; line-height: 17.12px;">How an offer price for electricity is calculated? From my observations, there are few experts and information about this subject and the exchange of knowledge is rather scant. That's why I decided to write a series of articles about the determination of electricity prices quoted for companies. If you either prepare price lists or offers, or you compare them to choose the most optimal one, this material may be helpful to you. Here you will learn the currently applied practical approach which assures that the final quote conforms to the real market conditions as well as to the client's load profile.</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; line-height: 17.12px;"><br /></span></b><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Generally, the offer price, among others, contains:</span><br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">delivery hedge cost (that is the 'black energy' cost),</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">premia resulting from certificates, risks, settlement dates, margins,</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">distribution and transmission fees.</span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">In this article, I'll concentrate only on the general idea of the determination of the hedging cost. The other costs related to licences, market access, guarantees or IT tools are not the subject of this presentation.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><b><span style="line-height: 17.12px;"><br /></span></b></span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">As the basis for settlement in Poland is the hourly spot market, the hedge should be applied to the hourly positions for the whole delivery period.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><b><span style="line-height: 17.12px;"><br /></span></b></span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 17.12px;">In order to illustrate the five steps of the algorithm, I'll use the title graph. The graph is simplified, as it covers only 24 delivery hours, yet in the whole leap year 2020, there are 8784 hours.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: small; line-height: 17.12px;">1. Profile Projection</span></h3>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Firstly, we generate the hourly profile projection, that is the expected load volumes - represented by the blue curve on the rear wall of the graph - based on the information about a client (branch, invoice data, overall delivery volume).</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: small; line-height: 17.12px;">2. Forward Price Structure</span></h3>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Secondly, we generate the price structure, that is the future hourly prices of energy on the spot market - represented by the blue curve on the lower wall of the graph - based on the past spot market prices (curve shape) as well as on the actual forward market prices for yearly, quarterly and monthly standard products (curve level).</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtanK2RYzKzlTTehv7qVxI-LVAmQo0XGh7-5S87ioqcJxeP7okBxv4JzxrAMfeAywHH50JGcCwXxTpzJYtMKbZU7ksgDFm87XqtYNTVHJ5hd2GaXlcg1dgyI0XBK5L_E0hJffnjUW03q99/s1600/price_structure.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="375" data-original-width="698" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtanK2RYzKzlTTehv7qVxI-LVAmQo0XGh7-5S87ioqcJxeP7okBxv4JzxrAMfeAywHH50JGcCwXxTpzJYtMKbZU7ksgDFm87XqtYNTVHJ5hd2GaXlcg1dgyI0XBK5L_E0hJffnjUW03q99/s400/price_structure.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: small; line-height: 17.12px;">3. Position</span></h3>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Then, we determine an hourly position, that is the hourly products of volumes and prices - these are the blue cuboids on the graph.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmCYBeGfLl5UGT3cdbuQCUnUdNti__Qfgr5NT_bviT4Of2MeuYv2Vtq7dWnPoy-tbqw3606mLc06t0wNDhrXBUzCRij-6Kgj55II-jgJZyif61H3Z8_VDpqWUKEK4Xh3AaICjV5Y8flj7w/s1600/hourly_position.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="375" data-original-width="698" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmCYBeGfLl5UGT3cdbuQCUnUdNti__Qfgr5NT_bviT4Of2MeuYv2Vtq7dWnPoy-tbqw3606mLc06t0wNDhrXBUzCRij-6Kgj55II-jgJZyif61H3Z8_VDpqWUKEK4Xh3AaICjV5Y8flj7w/s400/hourly_position.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: small; line-height: 17.12px;">4. Hedge Products</span></h3>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Afterwards, we choose the volumes of the standard hedge products in such a way, that their total position - which is the sum of the volumes of the orange cuboids on the graph - be equal to the overall position being hedged - which is the sum of volumes of blue cuboids.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">There are two orange cuboids on the graph - one for the base and one for the peak (in Poland the peak is defined between 8:00 and 22:00 in working days), but there can be either one or many of them - it depends on what products are available on the market at the moment and if it's really worth buying them for hedging.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilPUK-v9v9Sv0ri1Ui1jF27AInnX_bOz87Ya8xJ-17bQXTpGqEQYxVoAM2RAC6bq9jik7xBdS_OjC5Ww995b0PQvKSW8Tuqi6d5-_Uw82yo70UQmJRDhX2QXwY5rUQGKH5nYK33QbZZW9u/s1600/forward_contracts.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="375" data-original-width="698" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilPUK-v9v9Sv0ri1Ui1jF27AInnX_bOz87Ya8xJ-17bQXTpGqEQYxVoAM2RAC6bq9jik7xBdS_OjC5Ww995b0PQvKSW8Tuqi6d5-_Uw82yo70UQmJRDhX2QXwY5rUQGKH5nYK33QbZZW9u/s400/forward_contracts.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="line-height: 20.0304px;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: small; line-height: 17.12px;">5. Hedge Cost</span></span></h3>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; line-height: 17.12px;">In the end, we determine the hedge cost, that is we calculate the sum of volumes of the orange cuboids on the graph divided by the total delivery volume.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; text-align: justify;">The above algorithm can be simplified in such a way to hedge the volume instead of the position - then it's not necessary to generate the forward price structure. However, there is a risk that due to the adverse correlation of price and load volume the hedge products will not be chosen optimally. If, for example, a client consumes more energy in the second half-year than in the first one, and in the second half-year we expect higher prices than in the first one, then - hedged with the yearly base product only - the surplus gained in the first half-year will not compensate for the loss in the second half-year. This risk is not worth taking if the forward price structure is generated regularly, e.g. in order to calculate the value of the whole sales portfolio.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">It is reasonable to calculate quotes by taking into account the portfolio effect, e.g. as a difference between the hedge value for the whole portfolio with a client and the hedge value of the portfolio without a client. It is worth doing so especially when premia stemming from risks are calculated on the portfolio level.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Of course, the processes of quotes determination should be automated in order to assure:</span></div>
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<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">prompt reaction to make an offer,</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">confidence that there will be no errors,</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">process audit and compliance with the existing internal regulations.</span></li>
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<span style="line-height: 17.12px;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">In case of any questions or remarks, we are looking forward to hearing from you.</span></span></div>
ForecastPowerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15455748670417054077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7450671834108487206.post-73951316174791977412019-08-29T03:30:00.002-07:002019-09-19T00:53:27.190-07:00Po ile sprzedać energię firmie? - Wprowadzenie<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvPfSxImSGVpXqjNZWNG10AZVMaE4nWnCqdvc0fdeEmOZA2-8dHN4DNFweXTaJ4OeVzN0eEUBRGmeZSzbyawdI9jAmU_mhPxpqXrXjlfNKDUovIUYpaIpcKSZIFjTPo193E-na0wNHo3I/s1600/animated.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="375" data-original-width="698" height="211" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvPfSxImSGVpXqjNZWNG10AZVMaE4nWnCqdvc0fdeEmOZA2-8dHN4DNFweXTaJ4OeVzN0eEUBRGmeZSzbyawdI9jAmU_mhPxpqXrXjlfNKDUovIUYpaIpcKSZIFjTPo193E-na0wNHo3I/s400/animated.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; line-height: 17.12px;">Jak powstają ceny ofertowe energii elektrycznej? Z mojego doświadczenia wynika, że ekspertów i materiałów na ten temat jest mało, a wymiana wiedzy – znikoma. Dlatego postanowiłem napisać cykl artykułów poświęconych wyznaczaniu cen energii dla przedsiębiorstw. Jeśli na co dzień przygotowujesz cenniki lub oferty, albo je porównujesz, by wybrać najkorzystniejszą, ten materiał może okazać się pomocny. Dzięki niemu poznasz obecnie stosowaną praktykę, która gwarantuje, że finalna wycena odpowiada rynkowym realiom i profilowi odbiorcy.</span></b><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><b><span style="line-height: 17.12px;"><br /></span></b><span style="line-height: 17.12px;">Na cenę ofertową składają się m.in.:</span></span><br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; line-height: 17.12px;">koszt zabezpieczenia dostawy (koszt tzw. czarnej energii),</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; line-height: 17.12px;">premie z tytułu: certyfikatów, ryzyk, terminów rozliczeń, marży,</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; line-height: 17.12px;">stawki dystrybucyjne i przesyłowe.</span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 17.12px;">W tym artykule skupię się jedynie na głównej idei wyznaczania kosztu zabezpieczenia. Pozostałe koszty zw. m.in. z koncesją, dostępem do rynku, gwarancjami czy narzędziami informatycznymi nie są przedmiotem tego artykułu.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 17.12px;"><br /></span><span style="line-height: 17.12px;">Jako że podstawą do rozliczeń w Polsce jest godzinowy rynek natychmiastowy, zabezpieczenie powinno dotyczyć pozycji godzinowych w całym okresie dostawy.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 17.12px;"><br /></span><span style="line-height: 17.12px;">Do zilustrowania pięciu kroków algorytmu posłużę się tytułowym wykresem, który rozbiję na czynniki pierwsze. Wykres jest uproszczony, gdyż obejmuje tylko 24 godziny dostawy, a np. w całym 2020 roku są ich aż 8784.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: small; line-height: 17.12px;">1. Projekcja profilu</span></h3>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Generujemy godzinową projekcję profilu, czyli oczekiwane wolumeny zużyć – niebieska krzywa na tylnej ścianie wykresu – na podstawie danych o kliencie (branża, dane z faktur, całkowity wolumen dostawy).</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFRO-RF-xrHTE-mbLq1s7ahtDoYaCLP6n4uIMWPiVV5b43z9fcpWygOac1panVui3w-MVWJPZWjmB-cIm_drYwiw6LJMqlIDLILbhMBDO_-f3Nrui5PBHYryUnRmdlFFWIreA8Pc4jAdI/s1600/projekcja_profilu.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><img border="0" data-original-height="375" data-original-width="698" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFRO-RF-xrHTE-mbLq1s7ahtDoYaCLP6n4uIMWPiVV5b43z9fcpWygOac1panVui3w-MVWJPZWjmB-cIm_drYwiw6LJMqlIDLILbhMBDO_-f3Nrui5PBHYryUnRmdlFFWIreA8Pc4jAdI/s400/projekcja_profilu.png" width="400" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: small; line-height: 17.12px;">2. Struktura terminowa cen</span></h3>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Generujemy strukturę terminową cen, czyli przyszłe godzinowe ceny energii na rynku natychmiastowym – niebieska krzywa na dolnej ścianie wykresu – na podstawie dotychczasowych cen na rynku natychmiastowym (kształt krzywej) oraz aktualnych cen na rynku terminowym dla kontraktów rocznych, kwartalnych i miesięcznych (poziom krzywej).</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: small; line-height: 17.12px;">3. Pozycja</span></h3>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Wyznaczamy tzw. pozycję, tj. godzinowe iloczyny wolumenów i cen – niebieskie prostopadłościany na wykresie.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRN0J13ZSKdhv40GZ4csSbEDwDXWeKtF9z4Apc58e88p_-jLJ6wZhLHXomymrNZqzcFq9frPtmwl930YIOmphuF5ffyXj9nK8JUfD0uAJOdOD2dCD9ahUKwBpcRGae_VH6aj_1ZoOP97w/s1600/pozycja_godzinowa.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><img border="0" data-original-height="375" data-original-width="698" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRN0J13ZSKdhv40GZ4csSbEDwDXWeKtF9z4Apc58e88p_-jLJ6wZhLHXomymrNZqzcFq9frPtmwl930YIOmphuF5ffyXj9nK8JUfD0uAJOdOD2dCD9ahUKwBpcRGae_VH6aj_1ZoOP97w/s400/pozycja_godzinowa.png" width="400" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: small; line-height: 17.12px;">4. Produkty zabezpieczające</span></h3>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Dobieramy tak wolumeny terminowych produktów zabezpieczających, by ich łączna pozycja – tj. suma objętości pomarańczowych prostopadłościanów – zrównała się z łączną pozycją zabezpieczaną – tj. była równa sumie objętości niebieskich prostopadłościanów.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 17.12px;">Na wykresie są dwa pomarańczowe prostopadłościany – jeden dla pasma i jeden dla szczytu (w Polsce szczyt trwa od 8:00 do 22:00 w dni robocze), ale ich liczba może być inna i zależy od tego, jakie produkty są dostępne na rynku i czy opłaca się je kupić. </span><span style="line-height: 17.12px;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzEyk18_vMFj3btH2za5Pc1PIvIcgvT1Q8GSYzSwR20GCz0J4xz4HB-nUlKZ-hBrXijpr2Cz6LoLFc820OnUBw_Kpaww0hx-SQmViNfZbJdm9Pwd0EHn5T67ASc5pYMxI17dDyH4GbGyU/s1600/kontrakty_terminowe.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><img border="0" data-original-height="375" data-original-width="698" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzEyk18_vMFj3btH2za5Pc1PIvIcgvT1Q8GSYzSwR20GCz0J4xz4HB-nUlKZ-hBrXijpr2Cz6LoLFc820OnUBw_Kpaww0hx-SQmViNfZbJdm9Pwd0EHn5T67ASc5pYMxI17dDyH4GbGyU/s400/kontrakty_terminowe.png" width="400" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="line-height: 20.0304px;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: small; line-height: 17.12px;">5. Koszt zabezpieczenia</span></span></h3>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; line-height: 17.12px;"><span style="line-height: 17.12px;">Na końcu wyznaczamy koszt zabezpieczenia, czyli obliczamy sumę objętości pomarańczowych prostopadłościanów na wykresie i dzielimy ją przez całkowity wolumen dostawy.</span><span style="line-height: 17.12px;"><br /></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; text-align: justify;">Powyższy algorytm można uprościć tak, by zabezpieczać tylko wolumen zamiast pozycji – wtedy nie ma konieczności generowania struktury terminowej cen. Istnieje jednak ryzyko, że na skutek niekorzystnej korelacji ceny i wolumenu zużycia produkty zabezpieczające nie będą dobrane optymalnie. Jeśli na przykład klient zużyje więcej energii w drugim półroczu niż w pierwszym, a w drugim spodziewamy się wyższych cen niż w pierwszym, to przy zabezpieczeniu jedynie rocznym produktem pasmowym, nadwyżka otrzymana w pierwszym półroczu nie zrekompensuje straty w drugim. Ryzyko to nie jest warte ponoszenia, jeśli struktura terminowa cen jest generowana regularnie np. w celu obliczania wartości całego portfela sprzedaży.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; line-height: 17.12px;"><span style="line-height: 17.12px;"><br /></span><span style="line-height: 17.12px;">Warto wyznaczać wyceny z uwzględnieniem efektu portfela, np. jako różnicę pomiędzy wartością zabezpieczenia dla całego portfela łącznie z klientem, a wartością zabezpieczenia portfela bez uwzględniania tego klienta. Sprawdza się to szczególnie przy wyznaczaniu narzutów z tytułu ryzyk na poziomie całego portfela.</span><br /><span style="line-height: 17.12px;"><br /></span>Oczywiście, procesy wyznaczania cen ofertowych powinny być zautomatyzowane, aby zapewnić:</span><br />
<ul>
<li><span style="line-height: 17.12px;"><span style="line-height: 17.12px;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; line-height: 17.12px;">szybką reakcję na potrzebę sporządzenia wyceny,</span></span></span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 17.12px;"><span style="line-height: 17.12px;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">pewność, że do obliczeń nie wkradnie się błąd,</span></span></span></li>
<li><span style="line-height: 17.12px;"><span style="line-height: 17.12px;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; line-height: 17.12px;">audyt procesu wyceny i zgodność z obowiązującymi regulacjami wewnętrznymi.</span></span></span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="line-height: 17.12px;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 17.12px;">W przypadku pytań czy spostrzeżeń, serdecznie zapraszamy do kontaktu i do pozostawiania komentarzy.</span></span> </span></div>
ForecastPowerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15455748670417054077noreply@blogger.com0